By Julian Hofmann, 18 August 2010
Economic news will be fairly thin on the ground this week as most central bankers, statisticians and forecasters take their summer breaks, but Monday will see purchasing manager index (PMI) figures in Germany which should confirm the buoyant mood for the country's exporters.
Ahead of the announcement, Germany's PMI figures for services and manufacturing were rated at 56.5 and 61.2 - any score above 50 denotes expansion - proving once again that Germany's exporters are benefiting from China's largesse and the euro's weakness, while its conservative consumers keep a tight rein on their wallets. The individual German states are due to publish their individual consumer price index (CPI) figures on Friday, which is likely to show that living in Bavaria is really rather nice, unless you are a Prussian.
Eurozone consumer confidence figures also come out the same day and are expected to show the same downbeat trend. The same can't be said for year-on-year industrial orders due out on Wednesday which, driven by Germany, posted annualised growth in excess of 22 per cent between May 2009 and May 2010, although analysts will be keen to see whether this re-stocking effect can be sustained.
Tuesday is the busiest day for US data, and all eyes will be on existing home sales numbers, which are expected to show how depressed the market is after monthly sales fell by over 7 per cent to 5.37m units in the past two months. The prognosis is not good. Moody's forecasts that US house prices could fall another 20 per cent before stabilising in 2012, which is why the market will also look at the day's figures for mortgage approvals with interest.
The British Bankers Association will also publish their figures for mortgage approvals in July on Tuesday. This is likely to show the full extent of credit rationing with yet another fall on June's low of 34,813 forecast. Friday, though, is the busiest day for government press officers with the revised second-quarter GDP figures due out, along with private consumption, government spending, exports, imports and index of services.
visible-status-Public story-url-Economics week ahead 23-27 Aug.xml