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BP signals rising dividends

Legal wrangling over the Macondo spill continues - but BP's cashflow is recovering and management is committed to rising dividends
February 8, 2012

The release of BP's full-year figures was always likely to be overshadowed by the impending legal wranglings arising from 2010's Gulf of Mexico oil well spill - a court hearing on that begins later this month. But, with the 2010's painful $40.9bn (£25.9bn) oil spill response cost now in the past, the group has returned to a thoroughly healthy level of profitability - and is starting to rebuild dividends.

IC TIP: Buy at 483p

The fourth-quarter payout was raised by 14 per cent hike - the first rise since Macondo - and BP effectively signalled that restoring the payout is a priority. The company certainly looks able to support an improved return. Chief executive Bob Dudley anticipates that this year's operating cashflow will be around 50 per cent higher than last year's $22bn - assuming the oil price averages around $100 a barrel.

BP's profits were also well supported by strong oil and gas prices through 2011 - which compensated for the reduction in output that came about through Macondo-related disruptions to the group's deepwater drilling programme and the enforced sale of otherwise productive assets. Though fourth-quarter production did actually increase, total annual output fell 10 per cent year-on-year to 3,454 barrels of oil equivalent per day - but average oil & gas realisations bubbled up by 38 per cent and 18 per cent respectively.

Moreover, a solid trading backdrop helped boost BP's fourth-quarter replacement cost profit by two-thirds to $7.6bn and the full-year figure reached $23.9bn - compared to a $4.91bn loss during 2010. BP's downstream refining and marketing division was responsible for around a quarter of group profits and, contrary to industry trends, those operations reported high levels of utilisation during the final quarter.

Prior to these results broker Charles Stanley was forecasting pre-tax profit for 2012 of $34bn, giving EPS of 113¢.

BP (BP.)
ORD PRICE:483pMARKET VALUE:£92bn
TOUCH:482-483p12-MONTH HIGH:504pLOW: 361p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.8%PE RATIO:6
NET ASSET VALUE:587¢*NET DEBT:26%

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
200728921.210922.55
200836721.711332.39
200924616.888.535.28
2010309-4.83-19.84.35
201138638.813618.13
% change+25--+317

Ex-div:15 Feb

Payment:30 Mar

*Includes intangible assets of $33.2m, or 175¢ a share

£1=$1.58