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Talvivaara's share placing spooks investors

RESULTS: Decent fourth-quarter production figures from nickel and zinc producer Talvivaara were overshadowed by news of a share placing
February 17, 2012

Full-year results from Finnish nickel and zinc producer Talvivaara were overshadowed by news that the group had tapped shareholders for more cash. It raised a gross £68.8m through a share placing at 280p a share.

IC TIP: Sell at 304p

The funds will help boost nickel production from 16,087 tonnes in 2011 to 50,00 tonnes this year. But the cash call wasn't well received – the shares dropped sharply on the news, probably reflecting the scale of Talvivaara's cash consumption and the growing debt pile. In fact, net debt rose 45 per cent in the year. It also coincides with significant management changes. Following Pekka Perä's decision to step down as chief executive in October, after news of production glitches, the group announced that Harri Natunen will take the helm in April.

Operationally, Talvivaara narrowed full-year losses and boosted production. Indeed, buoyed by an especially robust December performance, the group managed record quarterly production of 4,769 tonnes of nickel and 10,524 tonnes of zinc – leaving current production targets looking achievable. Moreover, there's evidence that nickel and zinc prices are in the ascendancy, particularly if the rebound in Chinese stainless steel production remains sustainable.

Analysts' consensus estimates for adjusted 2012 EPS stand at 14.3¢ (a loss per share of 3.4¢ in 2011).

TALVIVAARA MINING (TALV)
ORD PRICE:304pMARKET VALUE:£747m
TOUCH:302-304p12-MONTH HIGH:608pLOW: 180p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:125¢NET DEBT:141%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (€m)Pre-tax profit (€m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20097.6-75.10-19nil
2010152-2.72-4nil
2011231-6.96-4nil
% change+52---

£1=€1.205