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Facebook's $1bn defensive M&A play

Facebook 's $1bn (£0.63bn) purchase of photo-sharing application Instagram has fuelled talk of a second tech bubble, although the deal is part of a strategy to maintain Facebook's stronghold on the social media sector.

Instagram is a popular application that allows users to take and share distinctive polaroid-style photos using mobile phones. A simple enough offering, apparently, but for Facebook – a service born out of the desktop browsing era – such an application holds significant appeal. Facebook, which has some 850m users, still struggles to make money from its mobile offerings, and the deal also keeps the Instagram technology and its 30m users away from rivals such as Google , which launched its social interaction tool Google+ in November 2011.

However, the $1bn price tag for Instagram looks toppy, particularly as the company is under two years old and has yet to generate any revenue. Moreover, Instagram recently offloaded a 10 per cent venture capital stake for $50m – suggesting that the entire company is worth no more than $500m.

Punchy valuations are hardly new to this sector. MySpace was bought by News Corp for $580m in 2005, and sold to an online advertising firm for $35m in 2010. While, in 2008, Yahoo rejected a $44.6bn bid by Microsoft in expectation that its future market value would be worth substantially more. Yahoo is now valued at just $18bn and is laying off 2,000 employees.

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With limited growth prospects, a forward earnings multiple of 17 looks too high for Yahoo. However, Microsoft's shares, rated on around 11 times forecast earnings, are cheaper. But, with smartphone penetration at just 10 per cent of the global population, it's the mobile market segment that boasts the best prospects. On that basis, mobile phone payment system software group Monitise looks smart and, at 36p, we reiterate our buy advice (20p, 9 July 2010).

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By Malar Velaigam ,
12 April 2012

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