The eurozone is officially in recession. We'll get a strong hint at this in Monday's numbers, which are likely to show that industrial production fell by around half a per cent in the first quarter. But it will be confirmed on Tuesday, when official figures are expected to show that GDP fell by around 0.2 per cent in the quarter, following a 0.3 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of last year.
There might, though, be a glimmer of hope that the recession won't last very long. Germany's ZEW survey of financial professionals could show a sixth successive increase in optimism for Germany's prospects, and this might help lift the region out of recession later this year.
Recession in our biggest trading partner is, naturally, bad for the UK. Tuesday's figures are likely to show that the trade deficit widened in the first quarter as exports fell. This would imply that net trade subtracted from GDP in the quarter.
On Wednesday, we'll see the latest unemployment numbers. Economists were surprised by last month's fall, simply because we know that - given past relationships between GDP growth and employment - the economy is not growing quickly enough to create jobs. Unless labour productivity continues to stagnate, unemployment is likely to rise. We could see this next week.
In this context, the Bank of England's Inflation Report on Wednesday is likely to repeat its previous messages - that the weak economy, allied to the ending of some one-off factors such as last year's rise in oil and utility prices, will force down inflation. It is also likely to forecast economic recovery in the second half of the year, while stressing that this prospect is uncertain, in part because of uncertainty about how the eurozone's debt crisis will develop.
US developments, however, might be less unpleasant. Retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively could show small rises, which would be consistent with the economy continuing to grow steadily in the second quarter. Surveys of manufacturers in the Philadelphia and New York areas should confirm this.
But Tuesday's numbers could hint at a small inflation problem. Although the overall consumer price inflation rate should fall slightly, thanks to last year's food and oil price rises falling out of the annual data, the 'core' rate - which excludes food and energy - could continue to edge up. It could rise to 2.4 per cent, which would be the highest since September 2008, and a significant increase on the sub-1 per cent rates seen in 2010. This could set some people thinking that monetary policy is too loose.
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