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Uncertainty causes Coppock sells

The vast majority of the global stock markets covered by the IC/Coppock Indicators came under pressure during April. As a result, eight market indices or market sectors produced sell signals.

Three of those markets - Belgium, Germany and Sweden - had only just given buy signals in March but their bull runs were short lived as they turned tail in April. European stock markets were marking time as a result of the uncertainties of which way the disillusioned, austerity-fatigued electors would cast their votes as France and Greece go to the polls, while Spain and the UK went into recession. Further afield on the other side of the pond the US recovery came to a halt due to disappointing March payrolls.

The other sell signals were for the emerging markets of India, Thailand and Turkey, also the FTSE All share sectors for food producers and pharmaceuticals. In order to produce a buy signal the FTSE 100 index will now need to generate an average index value for May of 5,824 – that's some 100 points behind its current value.

The two markets that stood out from the crowd were the South African Industrials which is up 14 per cent since its buy was given in January of this year and the Nasdaq 100 which rose 3 per cent in one month alone.

 

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators – major markets worldwide:

Index/marketApril avg indexApril indicator*March indicator*February indicator*Signal†
UK Govt. Secs169.51+52.0+48.3+44.2HOLD
FT 30 1,984.43-62.2-54.5-49.1WAIT
FTSE 1005,725.58-18.3-13.8-13.0WAIT
FTSE All-Share2,977.59-19.2-14.8-13.7WAIT
FT Gold Mines2,980.24-39.8-13.9+1.8WAIT
Amsterdam493.08-66.4-61.8-59.9WAIT
ASX All Ord4,411.70-59.1-55.3-51.8WAIT
S&P/ASX 200 Energy14,079.73-80.0-72.5-67.3WAIT
Belgium S.E.7,962.64-63.6+117.6-63.3SELL
Dax (Germany)6,742.66-42.2-38.9-40.2SELL ††
Dow Jones13,039.39+34.7+39.0+41.1WAIT
Rep of Ireland (ISEQ)3,209.09+18.9+9.3-7.3HOLD
France CAC 403,257.56-91.3-84.2-82.2WAIT
Hang Seng20,653.60-76.3-71.7-69.5WAIT
Italy BCI806.26-126.2-114.9-109.0WAIT
S. Africa Gold2,281.40+14.6+39.9+54.5WAIT
S. Africa Industrial33,296.82+41.1+25.3+7.9HOLD
Straits Times2,986.09-44.2-44.4-47.4HOLD
Tokyo New S.E.819.19-58.3-65.5-72.2HOLD
Toronto Comp12,147.66-44.9-33.6-22.3WAIT
Toronto Gold2,653.37-47.7-25.9-10.9WAIT
Sweden OMX1,044.48-49.5-48.3-52.2SELL ††
FTSE techMARK 1002,305.92+25.7+26.4+26.5WAIT
Nasdaq 1002,717.96+63.0+60.8+57.9HOLD
*Average index for April 2012. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators – FTSE All-Share Sectors:

SectorApril avg indexApril indicator*March indicator*February indicator*Signal†
Mining19,499.50-100.8-83.3-68.4WAIT
Oil & Gas8,318.96+10.5+23.7+31.0WAIT
Chemicals9,143.03+66.2+63.6+61.7HOLD
Constr & Bldg materials3,452.89-60.4-46.9-34.7WAIT
Forestry & paper6,662.49-4.5+8.9+15.3WAIT
Steel & other metals4,422.57-223.5-194.0-164.3WAIT
Aerospace & defence3,803.40+17.7+9.5-3.9HOLD
Diversified industrls2,613.87-27.6-24.8-21.4WAIT
Electronic & electr eqpt4,132.17+59.6+73.8+92.0WAIT
Eng'g & machinery7,956.41+62.9+73.3+80.3WAIT
Automobiles & parts4,829.93+13.6+34.7+54.0WAIT
H'hold goods textiles2,164.73-59.6-59.0-48.4WAIT
Beverages11,601.36+91.4+83.2+68.8HOLD
Food producers5,600.41+54.6+57.1+54.2SELL
Health3,540.67-32.7-24.9-15.5WAIT
Personal care19,699.70+83.4+95.0+107.7WAIT
Pharmaceuticals9,559.32+50.6+51.2+46.0SELL
Tobacco36,573.92+133.2+130.5+119.6HOLD
General retailers1,699.42-19.4-28.2-41.1HOLD
Leisure & hotels4,377.50-44.6-51.3-58.3HOLD
Media entertainment4,364.93-6.7-5.8-5.2WAIT
Support services4,783.03+20.5+17.4+12.0HOLD
Transport3,106.87-53.7-55.1-59.3HOLD
Food & drug retailers4,130.05-60.3-53.6-47.1WAIT
Telecommns services2,523.84+23.2+24.2+25.8WAIT
Electricity8,404.91+58.0+70.2+79.0WAIT
Other utilities6,554.45+26.2+24.6+24.2HOLD
Banks3,744.30-134.1-137.1-143.6HOLD
Insurance1,642.60-52.5-45.7-39.4WAIT
Life assurance4,322.27-20.9-13.7-11.3WAIT
Investment cos5,891.10-22.7-15.9-12.5WAIT
Other finance4,308.39-90.0-83.1-75.2WAIT
IT hardware984.15+49.4+70.5+95.7WAIT
Software & comp services898.83+54.0+51.246.6HOLD
*Average index for April 2012. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators – Emerging & other markets worldwide

Market/indexApril avg indexApril indicator*March indicator*February indicator*Signal†
Argentina8,616.38-92.5-67.7-42.5WAIT
FTSE Aim780.23-73.6-62.2-50.4WAIT
Brazil62,717.61-56.1-60.9-71.5HOLD
China2,567.04-104.6-93.6-81.3WAIT
Greece711.01-280.7-272.7-260.7WAIT
India9,123.66-61.0-60.6-64.6SELL ††
Indonesia4,160.28+57.9+62.2+66.8WAIT
Israel1,051.41-78.7-75.0-68.8WAIT
Mexico12,128.14-18.3-16.5-14.3WAIT
Philippines5,115.16+90.3+86.0+73.1HOLD
Poland40,476.53-80.9-69.1-59.0WAIT
Portugal5,264.21-153.9-142.8-131.0WAIT
Russia17,294.17-66.1-45.5-30.2WAIT
South Korea1,996.78-17.1-6.9-2.3WAIT
Spain740.17-122.3-106.3-97.3WAIT
Switzerland6,156.14-43.1-47.8-54.5HOLD
Thailand1,190.29+44.6+47.6+46.2SELL
Turkey60,918.68-65.1-63.0-66.3SELL ††
Venezuela223,276.10+617.0+471.4+378.6HOLD
*Average index for April 2012. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self-explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.

Read previous Coppock indicators here...

ABOUT THE IC/COPPOCK INDICATOR

The IC/Coppock indicator identifies long-term buying opportunities. It is based on a mechanical system known as the 'long-term buying guide', which was devised by Edwin Coppock of Texas. This buying guide was then revised by Investors Chronicle in 1963 – so it differs from the original system.

Mr Coppock only used his indicator as a buying guide, but we also show the sell signals in our table (above), just for interest. However, caution must be exercised when viewing these sell signals because they do not always indicate the start of a bear market. Sell signals do indicate a downward movement in the particular index, but this may well be a mere dip in a continuing bull market.

In the table, you will see the latest indicator, followed by the figures for the previous two months. These indicators can rise and fall, and be positive or negative figures. So when an indicator is in its negative phase, and then begins to rise after a falling trend, this is a buy signal [eg, -5.1 (Jan), -28.3 (Dec), -27 (Nov)]. When the indicator is in a positive rising phase, and begins to fall, this is a sell signal [eg, +120.9 (Jan), +132.5 (Dec), +128 (Nov)].

Unofficial buy signals occur when the indicator begins to rise, but is not in the negative phase. These may give investors an extra opportunity to purchase shares. Conversely, unofficial sells are given when the indicator begins to fall while in the negative phase.

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By Robert Ansted,
04 May 2012

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