The UK economy is faltering and only partly because of the eurozone's troubles, next week's numbers should show.
The news from the euro area is likely to be grim. Friday's purchasing managers' surveys will confirm that the region's manufacturers are stuck in recession. And official numbers could show that the unemployment rate has hit 11 per cent, the highest since current records began in 1995.
This is likely to spill over to the UK, by depressing exports and business confidence. This could be evident in next week's numbers. On Wednesday, the Bank of England is expected to report that companies are continuing to reduce their bank debt, despite low interest rates. And Friday's purchasing managers' survey could show that manufacturing has fallen back into recession.
However, the eurozone and manufacturing are not our only problems. On Thursday, a GfK/NOP poll is likely to show that consumer sentiment is stuck at very low levels. This is not mere idle talk. It is corroborated by household's reluctance (or inability) to borrow. Wednesday's Bank of England data will show that the number of mortgage approvals last month was under 50,000 - less than half the pre-recession rate. And consumer debt is likely to be up by only around 2 per cent, implying a fall in real terms. And much of this growth is probably due to households trying to make ends meet in the face of falling real incomes, rather than to increased optimism about future prospects.
All this is depressing retail sales. The CBI will give its latest reading on high street spending on Monday. This is likely to show weak sales, and not just because of this month's poor weather.
In the US, meanwhile, the evidence on growth should be more mixed. The good news is that the Institute for Supply Management should report continued decent growth in manufacturing. However, this news should be tempered by Thursday's figures, which could show that the economy in the first quarter grew by slightly less than the 2.2 per cent annualised rate first reported.
Friday's labour market report could further dampen any optimism. It is likely to show that the economy created, net, less than 200,000 jobs in May - not enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate from its current 8.1 per cent.
Such weak employment growth will help explain two items of news on Tuesday. One, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, is that house prices are still falling; they are likely to be around 3.5 per cent lower than a year ago, and one-third below their 2006 peak. Also, consumer confidence is still depressed. The Conference Board's index is likely to be stuck below 70; in 2007, it was over 110.
See our economics calendar at http://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/Research/Economic-Calendar
visible-status-Public story-url-ecweek_news_250512.xml
