While still bullish today, I have to sound a note of caution. Both the DAX and FTSE are around intraday overbought levels, and also near previous significant highs. This raises the risk of some sort of pullback at this stage. A mild dip will set up further near-term buying opportunities. I would also like to short EURGBP.
for analysis of some leading European markets.COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
09.12: The ECB has aroused great expectations with its professed commitment to do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro. However, its words need to be backed up with action, and soon. I feel there is a strong chance that the markets’ hopes will be dashed come Thursday’s ECB meeting. I would certainly not be positioning myself aggressively in advance of this event. If a major policy initiative is announced, the subsequent rally should be impressive and long-lasting, so there’s no need to rush in.
I remain sceptical about the rallies in the precious metals and copper, but would like to buy Brent.
WALL STREET OUTLOOK
13.07: At least on an intraday view, the US indices are looking somewhat toppy. Not only are they overbought on their fourhourly charts, but are struggling to make further headway. Clearly, equity markets are currently hopeful of some imminent help from the central banks. I have a nasty suspicion that they may be disappointed. Central bankers tend to get involved when markets are on their knees, not riding high.
I want to see the US indices come off a bit before I try and go long once more. This does not need to mean anything too dramatic. A mere dip to the some of their key intraday averages would do the trick. Thereafter, I’d try and buy the next rally.
for analysis of the Wall Street indices.
