We might get evidence next week that QE isn't much needed. If Tuesday's report from the British Retail Consortium corroborates last month's survey, it will show that retail sales growth has picked up since the summer. And if official industrial production data are consistent with the GDP report, they will show a 0.9 per cent rise in manufacturing output in September.
It won't all be good news, though. The NIESR's estimate of GDP in October will remind us that the third quarter's rise in GDP was flattered by a comparison with a very weak June. Their numbers could show that GDP in October was actually below July's level. And Thursday's trade numbers will remind us that the UK recovery isn't getting much help from overseas. Although the trade deficit might have narrowed in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, this could be in part to weak imports; exports to the eurozone in particular are likely to be poor.
However, even here might see some good news next week. Official figures could show a rise in industrial production in Germany in September. And although output in France and Italy might show falls in the month, both would follow surprisingly strong increases in August. Taken together, these numbers would be consistent with output in the euro area edging up a little since the spring – implying that official figures aren't as bad as purchasing managers' surveys.
In another respect, though, official data should confirm those surveys. On Wednesday, Eurostat is expected to say that retail sales volumes in the euro area are some 0.5 per cent down on a year ago, and showing no sign of a recovery.
We'll see on Thursday how the ECB responds to all this. It's expected to keep monetary policy unchanged.
