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Opinion

Next week's economics: 12-16 Nov

Next week's economics: 12-16 Nov
November 9, 2012
Next week's economics: 12-16 Nov

It won't just be CPI inflation that's rising. Other figures on Tuesday could show another rise in manufacturers' output price inflation, in part because input costs have stopped falling.

One thing, however, might cause the Bank of England to relax about this - wage inflation in still low. Wednesday's figures could show that earnings have risen around 1.8 per cent in the last 12 months. Although above the spring's rate of increase, this is slower growth than a year ago.

However, Wednesday's figures will probably add to a puzzle that's vexed economists for months. They could show another fall in unemployment, which means that labour demand is surprisingly strong given the weakness in output. Such weak productivity growth is one reason why inflation might stay quite high - although there's little the Bank can do about this.

Overseas, we could see some better news in the eurozone. Official figures could show that industrial production was more or less flat in September. Coming after a rise in August, this would imply that output rose in the quarter, suggesting that the region's economy might not be quite as weak as purchasing managers' surveys imply. This cheeryish picture could be reinforced by Germany's ZEW survey, which could show a third successive increase in finance professionals' expectations for the economy.

However, GDP figures for France, Italy and Germany on Thursday might show very little growth indeed, reminding us that the region is a long way from good health.

In the US, news could be mixed. On Wednesday, we should see a small rise in retail sales in October, leaving them around 4.5 per cent higher in nominal terms than a year ago. And Friday's figures should show a small rise in industrial production - although this would leave output lower than it was in June and July. However, the Empire State survey could show that sales and orders of manufacturers in the New York area are falling.

The figure that has perhaps the best predictive power for equity returns will come in Friday's US capital flows report. For years, strong foreign buying of US equities has led to poor returns on global equities in the following 12 months, and foreign selling to good returns. Recently, foreigners have been small buyers of US equities, suggesting that prospective annual returns, while okay, are not as good as they were a few months ago.