Next week's economics: 19-23 Nov

The euro area is still in recession, next week's numbers could show. Purchasing managers' surveys are expected to say that both manufacturing and services are still in decline, while Germany's Ifo survey and the National Bank Of Belgium's business conditions indicator might, respectively, show sixth and fourth successive monthly declines.

The only crumbs of comfort could be that the rate of decline might be moderating, and that official figures recently suggest that the recession might not be quite as deep as the surveys say.

This weakness is hitting the UK. Thursday's CBI survey is expected to show that export order books are below normal, but not so much so that manufacturers expect output to fall over the next three months.

Outside the euro area, the news might be better. Thursday's HSBC/Markit purchasing managers' survey might show that manufacturing output has risen in China for the first time in a year. And US figures on Monday and Tuesday could show that housing starts and sales of pre-owned houses are both stronger than a few months ago, consistent with a decent recovery in the housing market.

However, it's possible that Wednesday's leading indicators will show a small fall. But the trend will still be slightly upwards, consistent with a sluggish expansion.

In the UK, Wednesday's minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting should show us why, and by how much, the Bank decided against more quantitative easing last week. It would be odd if the third-quarter's surprisingly strong GDP growth played a great role in their thinking. More likely, they were concerned by the likelihood of above-target inflation for most of next year and by the possibility that quantitative easing won't be as effective in future as it was at first.

We'll also see the latest figures on government borrowing on Wednesday. These could show that current borrowing (a measure unaffected by the transfer of the Royal Mail's pension fund) has so far this year been above last year's level - around £64bn against £58.4bn. This will reflect the fact that the private sector is still anxious to be a net lender.

The ratio of government debt to GDP could hit 68 per cent, its highest since 1969. However, excluding the debt held by the Bank of England, the ratio is only 44 per cent, the same as in March 2009.

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