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Christmas will be key for Majestic

Majestic Wine was never going to have a vintage first half after the grim summer weather. Indeed, like-for-like retail sales growth of 0.6 per cent, while not disastrous, is seen as disappointing by many analysts. Moreover, sales weakness was compounded by a decision to pull out of the wholesale business - revenues from these low-margin activities fell from £10.4m to just £3.2m in the period. This move should boost group profitability but, initially, broker Investec estimates the drag on profits will be about £1m a year.

However, there were reasons to be positive ahead of the key Christmas trading period. Following the opening of nine new stores, overall retail sales grew 4.7 per cent to £109m and active customer numbers rose 11.6 per cent to 594,000. What's more, average spend per transaction edged up by a pound to £126. The group also delivered online sales growth of 14 per cent, which takes such sales to almost a tenth of UK retail. The posh-wine business, Lay & Wheeler, made good progress as did Majestic's two Calais shops. And the second half has started better with like-for-like sales 1.2 per cent ahead in the first six weeks, albeit against a weak comparative period last year.

Investec is standing by its full-year pre-tax profit forecast of £24.1m and EPS of 27.7p (from £23.2m and 26.1p in 2012).

MAJESTIC WINE (MJW)
ORD PRICE:466pMARKET VALUE:£302m
TOUCH:464-47012-MONTH HIGH:489pLOW: 312p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.4%PE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:121pNET DEBT:4%

Half-year to 1 OctTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20111288.8110.03.8
20121269.1610.54.0
% change-1+4+5+5

Ex-div: 5 Dec

Payment: 4 Jan

IC VIEW:

Majestic Wine has an impressive record of self-financed expansion and has been resilient in the face of a challenging first half. Nevertheless, a forward PE of 17 suggests high expectations and these results struggle to justify such lofty hopes. Hold.

Last IC view: Hold, 414p, 18 June 2012

visible-status-Standard story-url-majesticwine_halfyear_19112012.xml

By Algy Hall,
19 November 2012

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