Next week's economics: 3-7 Dec

Wednesday's Autumn Statement will be the main media event of next week. Chancellor George Osborne is likely to have to announce lower GDP growth forecasts for this year and next - the Budget predicted 0.8 per cent for 2012 and 2 per cent for 2013 - and higher borrowing as a result, although the agreement not to pay interest on the Bank of England's gilt holdings will mitigate the upward revision to borrowing.

Most of this, however, will be old news: it will bring the official forecasts into line with private ones. Sadly, though, the new news might be grim too.

On Monday, purchasing managers are expected to report that manufacturing activity is still falling. Official figures on Friday could be consistent with this. Although they might show a small rise in output in October, this will leave production down from the third quarter's level. A big reason for this weakness will be evident in Thursday's numbers. These are likely to show that the trade gap has widened in the last three months compared with the previous three, thanks in large part to weak exports to the eurozone.

It's not just manufacturing that's in the dumps, though. On Tuesday the British Retail Consortium is likely to say that retail sales grew only slowly in the year to November. And the following day, purchasing managers are expected to say that service sector activity generally was flat in the month.

There might, however, be better news in Friday's GDP estimate from the NIESR. This could show that real GDP grew by over half a per cent in the three months to November. Such growth, however, will owe as much to the weakness of GDP in June and August as to recent activity. Indeed, GDP might even have dipped a little in November, albeit after a good October.

We will also get a reminder of a big reason for the UK's malaise next week: the eurozone is doing badly. Purchasing managers' surveys are likely to confirm 'flash' estimates which showed that economic activity dropped in November. Official figures from Germany might look a little better, with factory orders and output likely to post rises in October after falling in September. But even these gains would leave both below the spring's levels. The recession in southern Europe is hurting the north.

The rest of the world, though, might be doing a little better. Monday's purchasing managers' survey should confirm that output has risen in China, for the first time in 13 months. And in the US, the ISM survey might show that manufacturing activity is growing, albeit only slightly, while Friday's figures could show that the economy created a net 150,000 jobs in November.

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