Not only is seasonality positive for the indices right now, but cyclicality is also in their favour. One of the more influential cycles in the FTSE 100 is one of around 50 days’ duration. With the last turning-point having occurred in mid-to-late November, the next one might be expected some 25 sessions later, which takes us right up to around Christmas. While I am more bullish about the DAX than the FTSE right now, I would still be happy buying into the UK index on any intraday dips. A break to the upside should be imminent.
Click here for analysis of some leading European markets.
While I am bearish just for now on the outlook for EURUSD, the bigger-picture remains promising enough. Viewed on the weekly chart, the price has merely been going sideways since mid-September. Such horizontal activity after an uptrend is typically the precursor to a resumption of the prior trend. Once EURUSD breaks above the top of the recent range at $1.3165, I reckon many more buyers could enter. A move to $1.35 could easily ensue.
Click here for analysis of commodities and EURUSD.
The next Outlooks will appear on Monday 17 December.
WALL STREET OUTLOOK
Wall Street continues to press higher, despite all the chatter over the “fiscal cliff”. The smart money is, I believe, betting on a happy resolution of the standoff between America’s politicos, and rightly so. A compromise is in everyone’s interests and will likely be reached. As such, the strategy is surely to keep buying on the small intraday dips here. The S&P and Dow remain the indices of choice for me right now, and particularly the latter one. The Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, still looks dicey, but this could soon change for the better too.
Click here for analysis of the Wall Street indices.
Dominic Picarda is a Chartered Market Technician and has co-ordinated the IC's trading coverage since 2006. He is a regular speaker at trading and investment events and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification.
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