While results from cruise ship operator Carnival beat most brokers' forecasts, the shares sunk 6 per cent after it delivered EPS guidance for next year of $2.20 to $2.40 - some way below expectations.
The key culprit for the disappointment was lower-than-expected revenue yield predictions. The company's caution about its prospects reflects weakening demand from Germany, the UK and southern Europe as well as concerns about the potential impact of fiscal cliff issues in the US. Like other holiday companies, booking visibility is limited so a lot of uncertainty remains.
There are some reasons to be cheery, though, such as guidance that fuel cost increases will not be as bad as analysts feared. Other costs also continue to be tightly controlled, although one-off factors will lead to a 1 to 2 per cent increase this year compared with a 0.9 per cent fall in the final quarter. The Costa Concordia disaster - which made last fiscal year "the most challenging in our company's history", said chairman Micky Arison - is also fading in investors' memories.
Broker Numis expects full-year pre-tax profits of $2bn and EPS of 259¢ (from $1.3bn and 188¢ in 2012).
| CARNIVAL (CCL) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD PRICE: | 2,440p | MARKET VALUE: | £19.0bn | |
| TOUCH: | 2,438-2,441p | 12-MONTH HIGH: | 2,596p | LOW: 1,708p |
| DIVIDEND YIELD: | 2.5% | PE RATIO: | 24 | |
| NET ASSET VALUE: | 3,076¢ | NET DEBT: | 35% | |
| Year to 30 Nov | Turnover ($bn) | Pre-tax profit ($bn) | Earnings per share (¢) | Dividend per share (¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 14.9 | 2.38 | 296 | 160 |
| 2009 | 13.5 | 1.81 | 227 | nil |
| 2010 | 14.5 | 1.98 | 251 | 40 |
| 2011 | 12.2 | 1.91 | 243 | 100 |
| 2012* | 11.7 | 1.30 | 167 | 100** |
| % change | -4 | -32 | -31 | +0 |
Ex-div: na Payment: na £=$1.62 *Excludes 50¢ special dividend to be paid 28 Dec **Paid 14 Dec | ||||
