In December stock markets rose and this was followed by the “January Effect' which caused world stock markets to surge in January. The FTSE 100 index alone had its best January increase for 24 years and ended the month up 6.43 per cent. It would have been even higher had FTSE not given up 46.23 points on the last day of the month. This souring was caused by bad US economic data.
Among all this euphoria the IC/Coppock Indicator produced two sell signals - the first was for the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the other for the Nasdaq 100. With the Dow just some 300 points short from its all-time high, investors have every right to be both nervous and cautious and the IC/Coppock's signal should not be ignored. The way that the IC/Coppock Indicator for the Nasdaq Index has been whip-sawing around indicates the current volatility of stocks within this particular sector.
Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - major markets worldwide:
| Index/market | January average index | January indicator* | December indicator* | November indicator* | Signal† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK Gov Secs | 169.00 | +17.9 | +27.0 | +35.3 | WAIT |
| FT 30 | 2,286.90 | +60.6 | +41.1 | +19.0 | HOLD |
| FTSE 100 | 6,161.87 | +32.7 | +26.7 | +19.7 | HOLD |
| FTSE All-Share | 3,229.89 | +38.8 | +31.2 | +22.4 | HOLD |
| FT Gold Mines | 2,739.24 | -114.3 | -113.4 | -111.9 | WAIT |
| Amsterdam | 541.54 | +45.6 | +37.7 | +24.9 | HOLD |
| ASX All Ord | 4,788.30 | +22.2 | +7.2 | -6.1 | HOLD |
| S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 12,787.12 | -47.0 | -54.3 | -59.6 | HOLD |
| Belgium S.E. | 8,905.75 | +85.2 | +74.6 | +57.5 | HOLD |
| Dax (Germany) | 7,747.56 | +104.0 | +89.3 | +65.3 | HOLD |
| Dow Jones | 13,615.32 | +57.8 | +58.4 | +58.3 | SELL |
| Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 3,500.42 | +113.6 | +112.6 | +107.2 | HOLD |
| France CAC 40 | 3,733.97 | +42.9 | +25.4 | +2.1 | HOLD |
| Hang Seng | 23,470.71 | +50.8 | +29.1 | +4.6 | HOLD |
| Italy BCI | 926.65 | -6.9 | -31.2 | -52.1 | HOLD |
| S. Africa Gold | 2,237.42 | -97.1 | -86.6 | -70.6 | WAIT |
| S. Africa Industrial | 38,458.18 | +150.3 | +145.0 | +138.2 | HOLD |
| Straits Times | 3,229.48 | +48.5 | +35.2 | +18.9 | HOLD |
| Tokyo New S.E. | 901.20 | +18.1 | -6.4 | -23.4 | HOLD |
| Toronto Comp | 12,668.82 | -4.8 | -13.3 | -23.9 | HOLD |
| Toronto Gold | 2,437.27 | -117.0 | -116.6 | -115.5 | WAIT |
| Sweden OMX | 1,140.68 | +53.2 | +45.0 | +32.3 | HOLD |
| FTSE techMARK 100 | 2,592.41 | +97.1 | +88.2 | +76.1 | HOLD |
| Nasdaq 100 | 2,736.90 | +93.8 | +96.8 | +96.2 | SELL |
| *Average index for January 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here
Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - FTSE All-Share sectors:
| Sector | January average index | January indicator* | December indicator* | November indicator* | Signal† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | 19,325.05 | -64.9 | -75.1 | -91.2 | HOLD |
| Oil &gas | 8,063.92 | -14.5 | -8.2 | +0.2 | WAIT |
| Chemicals | 9,692.44 | +149.2 | +147.5 | +133.1 | HOLD |
| Constr &building materials | 3,657.55 | +0.1 | -11.3 | -23.8 | HOLD |
| Forestry &paper | 8,400.30 | +151.3 | +118.5 | +78.9 | HOLD |
| Steel &other metals | 3,367.55 | -240.0 | -253.1 | -267.1 | HOLD |
| Aerospace &defence | 4,231.57 | +110.6 | +109.1 | +103.0 | HOLD |
| Diversified industrials | 2,907.32 | +111.9 | +96.7 | +73.5 | HOLD |
| Electronic &electrical equipment | 4,582.90 | +123.8 | +108.5 | +85.3 | HOLD |
| Eng'g &machinery | 8,743.78 | +64.2 | +57.2 | +49.6 | HOLD |
| Automobiles &parts | 5,673.54 | +66.7 | +53.1 | +31.8 | HOLD |
| H'hold goods textiles | 3,101.39 | -35.9 | -71.9 | -99.2 | HOLD |
| Beverages | 13,544.83 | +162.1 | +161.1 | +155.9 | HOLD |
| Food producers | 6,691.52 | +79.7 | +70.3 | +64.0 | HOLD |
| Health | 4,054.30 | +64.2 | +51.6 | +38.8 | HOLD |
| Personal care | 18,371.05 | -15.1 | -21.8 | -28.8 | HOLD |
| Pharmaceuticals | 9,739.52 | +7.5 | +13.5 | +22.6 | WAIT |
| Tobacco | 36,396.33 | +66.1 | +77.1 | +90.6 | WAIT |
| General retailers | 1,958.20 | +115.8 | +95.8 | +70.1 | HOLD |
| Leisure &hotels | 5,363.13 | +115.2 | +96.9 | +75.3 | HOLD |
| Media ent't | 5,069.73 | +92.6 | +81.0 | +67.5 | HOLD |
| Support services | 5,262.89 | +115.7 | +108.6 | +95.7 | HOLD |
| Transport | 3,278.38 | +46.8 | +32.2 | +12.6 | HOLD |
| Food &drug rtlrs | 4,338.61 | -49.5 | -63.3 | -66.9 | HOLD |
| Telecommns svs | 2,934.96 | +119.2 | +108.9 | +94.6 | HOLD |
| Electricity | 8,994.48 | +41.8 | +34.5 | +27.5 | HOLD |
| Other utilities | 7,003.59 | +71.9 | +68.4 | +62.4 | HOLD |
| Banks | 4,758.02 | +86.6 | +52.7 | +14.9 | HOLD |
| Insurance | 1,919.97 | +71.4 | +50.2 | +24.5 | HOLD |
| Life assurance | 5,403.21 | +130.5 | +112.1 | +84.0 | HOLD |
| Investment cos | 6,423.90 | +30.8 | +17.5 | +4.6 | HOLD |
| Other finance | 5,045.23 | +51.8 | +18.3 | -10.6 | HOLD |
| IT hardware | 1,301.10 | +110.9 | +80.2 | +51.6 | HOLD |
| Software &comp svs | 1,079.14 | +130.0 | +121.6 | +110.2 | HOLD |
| *Average index for January 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
Summary table of IC/Coppock indicators - Emerging & other markets worldwide
| Market/index | January avg index | January indicator* | December indicator* | November indicator* | Signal† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 10,964.90 | -26.8 | -55.6 | -78.1 | HOLD |
| FTSE Aim | 732.64 | -32.1 | -41.9 | -54.5 | HOLD |
| Brazil | 61,492.52 | +8.9 | +6.5 | +0.6 | HOLD |
| China | 2,584.88 | -56.0 | -79.7 | -93.9 | HOLD |
| Greece | 979.77 | +4.6 | -64.8 | -128.3 | HOLD |
| India | 6,091.08 | +63.3 | +35.6 | +12.9 | HOLD |
| Indonesia | 4,403.12 | +63.3 | +61.0 | +57.2 | HOLD |
| Israel | 1,069.28 | +16.1 | +7.7 | -6.8 | HOLD |
| Mexico | 14,225.24 | +81.3 | +66.5 | +50.8 | HOLD |
| Philippines | 6,081.31 | +150.8 | +143.4 | +133.8 | HOLD |
| Poland | 47,569.77 | +48.9 | +23.3 | -6.6 | HOLD |
| Portugal | 6,134.79 | -48.6 | -81.4 | -108.0 | HOLD |
| Russia | 17,090.77 | -53.6 | -62.8 | -72.4 | HOLD |
| South Korea | 1,986.10 | +11.7 | +5.0 | -3.1 | HOLD |
| Spain | 870.18 | -58.3 | -80.2 | -97.7 | HOLD |
| Switzerland | 7,242.04 | +86.0 | +74.6 | +61.4 | HOLD |
| Thailand | 1,434.83 | +150.2 | +134.1 | +120.1 | HOLD |
| Turkey | 82,298.25 | +150.7 | +107.3 | +66.5 | HOLD |
| Venezuela | 480,978.80 | +1,342.5 | +1,252.4 | +1,162.2 | HOLD |
| *Average index for January 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self-explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal. | |||||
