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Opinion

Jobless hope for profits

Jobless hope for profits
February 25, 2013
Jobless hope for profits

History suggests this usually happens. Since the data on economic inactivity began in 1993, there has been a good correlation (0.51) between a wide measure of unemployment – the unemployed plus “inactive” who want a job as a percentage of the working age population – and the non-oil profit share four quarters later. High rates of joblessness, such as in the early 90s, led to high profit shares. And lower rates, in the mid-00s, led to lower profit shares.

There’s a simple reason for this. In conventional economic terms, an excess supply of labour bids down its price, increasing consumer surplus for its purchasers. Or in Marxian terms, mass unemployment shifts bargaining power from workers to capitalists.

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