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Excalibur hangs over Gulf Keystone

RESULT: The pending legal outcome of the Excalibur Ventures issue continues to drag on Gulf Keystone's shares, but operational progress at Shaikan should lead to a strong ramp-up through 2013.
June 20, 2013

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) made belated progress at its Shaikan block in Kurdistan through 2012, but the company's share price is being weighed down by uncertainty linked to a pending verdict over the long-running court case with Excalibur Ventures (in which Excalibur is claiming a stake in the Kurdistan assets).

IC TIP: Buy at 150p

The 2012 operating loss increased by 17 per cent to $82m (£60m), primarily due to legal bills over Excalibur. This was above market forecasts, but the financial results are of secondary importance as Shaikan transitions from appraisal to early production stage. The Field Development Plan is currently being assessed, but output at Shaikan (75 per cent working interest) quadrupled to 832,859 barrels through 2012. GKP is targeting production of 40,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the year-end, with an initial plateau rate of 150,000 bopd achievable on near-term completion of a pipeline into the region's energy infrastructure. Elsewhere in the region, there was the discovery of Jurassic oil in the Sheikh Adi-2 exploration well, and a new Triassic oil discovery at Bakrman-1 in the Akri-Bijeel Block.

The expansion under way is being financed through a $275m convertible bond issue, but the scale of the ramp-up will obviously enhance GKP's ability to fund its activities internally.

GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM (GKP)
ORD PRICE:150pMARKET VALUE:£1.3bn
TOUCH:148-151p12-MONTH HIGH:259pLOW: 127p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:65¢*NET CASH:$18.9m

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20081.0-59.3-18.6nil
2009nil-96.3-22.8nil
20100.8-26.8-4.2nil
20116.9-63.8-8.0nil
201232.2-80.2-9.6nil
% change+365---

*Includes intangible assets of $546m, or 62¢ a share £1=$1.55