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Opinion

Aux fermes, citoyens!

Aux fermes, citoyens!
August 16, 2013
Aux fermes, citoyens!

For a start, it's worth pointing out that property is not, on a like-for-like basis, all that much cheaper across the Channel. France and Britain have experienced similar real estate cycles since the 1980s, with a trough in the mid-1990s followed by a long boom and a minor correction during the credit crunch. Factions of both societies complain that property is still overpriced relative to earnings.

This may not seem the case for a family in the south-east who ventures into northern France. The average house price in Kent is £241,000, according to the latest LSL Acadametrics report, whereas the average in Nord Pas-de-Calais, its southern neighbour, is €143,000 (£123,000), according to the association of French notaries.

But the north of France is a sleepy place, ex-industrial in parts and unpopular with locals, which it might be fairer to compare with northern England (average house price: £140,351). The most popular film in French box office history, the 2008 comedy Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis, translated as Welcome to the Sticks, featured a post-office manager banished to the Belgian border as punishment for deviously trying to wangle a position on the Mediterranean coast. Likewise, the south-east of England (average house price: £276,000) holds some of the same attractions to the English that the riviera region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur does for the French (average house price: €298,000 or £270,000).

As for the capitals, Paris is arguably more expensive than central London on a space-adjusted basis, costing $8,260 (£7,101) per square metre on average, and considerably more in the central arrondissements. A recent study of housing costs by Halifax found that the borough of Westminster cost £7,586 per square metre. If Parisian property prices sometimes look lower than their central London equivalents, it is only because Parisians live in smaller homes - often with a complementary holiday pad in the south.

It is true that these second homes can cost a good deal less than in Britain. The two countries have similar populations, but France has more than twice the land area. The result is that France suffers much more acutely from rural depopulation than its northern neighbour. This is a major reason why 6-7 per cent of the French housing stock has been registered vacant for many years, according to the latest RICS European Housing Review (the equivalent in England is about 4 per cent). Plenty of small cottages and barns, once occupied by farm labourers and their livestock, have not found a purpose in the modern economy except as renovation projects for enterprising metropolitans.

This makes rural French property considerably cheaper than its UK equivalent, particularly in remote areas of the Limousin and Burgundy. But it also means the scope for long-term capital appreciation is limited. In the absence of a domestic market, the resale value of such homes may depend largely on what another generation of Brits is prepared to pay for a rural retreat. France remains the second most popular destination for British holiday-makers, after Spain, but seems to be in decline - the number of visits has fallen each year since 2008, according to government estimates. And the French themselves tend to prefer second homes near the coast or in ski resorts.

Nor is the immediate outlook for French house prices very favourable. Government subsidies have long been used in France to support housebuilding and promote home-ownership, and these were dramatically expanded during the financial crisis as part of Nicolas Sarkozy's fiscal stimulus package. The measures worked, supporting strong rates of housebuilding throughout the downturn and pushing house prices back to their 2007 peak by 2011.

But the subsidies were expensive, and in large part they were dropped when austerity caught up with French politics in 2011, triggering an ongoing double dip in both transactions and prices. François Hollande, who succeeded Mr Sarkozy last year, has maintained his predecessor's focus on reducing the deficit. As a member of the Socialist Party, he also toned up the anti-landlord rhetoric at first, although he has more recently tried to revive the property market by announcing a one-off reduction in capital gains tax in 2014.

What the sum of these mixed messages will be is anyone's guess. The broader picture is arguably the opposite of what is happening in the UK, where the government is just discovering the political and economic benefits of subsidising the housing market - perhaps to its subsequent peril. On the plus side, the French economy is picking up again after a mild winter recession, which may offset the fiscal squeeze.

In any case, the outlook for house prices matters less to those who buy property for personal rather than financial gain - as seems likely for most Brits in France. Indeed, the current nervousness of the French bourgeoisie over Mr Hollande's tax plans has helped create a buyer's market even in the prime postcodes of Paris and the Côte d'Azur. It may not be such a bad time to be dallying by estate-agent windows.