Coppock gave just one buy signal in September - and even then only an unofficial one on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index - hardly surprising given that the month saw no fewer than 11 of the major markets we track hit recent highs as fears of imminent tapering of the US quantitative easing programme receded, including the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100.
Entering October, and the US is again at the centre of a bout of nervousness, with the current political stalemate there and resultant government shutdown stopping markets in their tracks. That said, damage has been limited by the expectation that, once again, US policymakers will reach a resolution.
But it does highlight how delicately poised markets are - indeed, while Coppock proved short on buy signals this month, there were plenty of sells among the FTSE sectors and emerging market indices we track (you'll find the full Coppock data here). And there is limited scope for imminent buy signals as major markets continue to power higher - although the reverse is true in several emerging markets, which are awaiting their next buy signals after recent weakness.
The Coppock indicator was, of course, only originally designed to generate buying signals, and purists may discount the flurry of red flags. But when a turning point does arrive, it could nevertheless be an early warning system worth paying attention to.
| Index/ market | Average index September 2013 | Sep | Indicators Aug | Jul | Signal | Month of last buy signal | Monthly average index then | Index peak since last buy signal | x | Month of last sell signal | Monthly average index then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK Govt. Secs | 160.5 | -23 | -17.9 | -11.5 | WAIT | Aug 11* | 163.26 | 177.08 | (24/07/12) | 12-Dec | 175.55 |
| FT 30 | 2,698.30 | 165.3 | 160.9 | 152.9 | HOLD | Jul-12 | 1,952.99 | 2,742.80 | (16/09/13) | 11-Nov | 1,861.57 |
| FTSE 100 | 6,546.02 | 73.9 | 72.8 | 71.5 | HOLD | Jul-12 | 5,636.46 | 6,840.27 | (22/05/13) | 11-Nov | 5,271.31 |
| FTSE All-Share | 3,485.25 | 85.8 | 84.2 | 82 | HOLD | Aug-12 | 3,010.36 | 3,604.73 | (22/05/13) | 11-Nov | 2,737.66 |
| FT Gold Mines | 1,617.44 | -216.9 | -199.6 | -187.5 | WAIT | Oct-12 | 3,213.21 | 3,330.73 | (1/10/12) | 12-Dec | 2,982.77 |
| Amsterdam | 571.21 | 57.5 | 57.8 | 58.8 | WAIT | Jun-12 | 468.03 | 580.99 | (19/09/13) | Jul-13 | 552.16 |
| ASX All Ord | 5,219.20 | 92.7 | 87.7 | 83.4 | HOLD | Jul-12 | 4,181.70 | 5,302.30 | (27/09/13) | 11-Nov | 4,285.50 |
| S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 14,084.13 | 18.5 | 4.6 | -5.5 | HOLD | May-13 | 13,183.19 | 14,371.48 | (27/09/13) | Apr-13 | 12,770.42 |
| Belgium S.E. | 9,995.00 | 80.4 | 84.3 | 89.1 | WAIT | May-12 | 7,674.12 | 10,199.77 | (19/09/13) | Jun-13 | 9,017.25 |
| Dax (Germany) | 8,479.89 | 117.6 | 123.3 | 126.1 | WAIT | May-13 | 8,317.43 | 8,694.18 | (19/09/13) | Aug-13 | 8,332.46 |
| Dow Jones | 15,228.06 | 84.5 | 84.3 | 81.9 | HOLD | Mar 13* | 14,418.26 | 15,676.94 | (18/09/13) | Jan-13 | 13,615.32 |
| Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 4,244.76 | 146.9 | 140.5 | 131.1 | HOLD | Mar 13* | 3,883.38 | 4,292.54 | (19/09/13) | Feb-13 | 3,641.55 |
| France CAC 40 | 4,109.33 | 102.7 | 101.9 | 99.9 | HOLD | Jul-12 | 3,199.55 | 4,123.89 | (16/08/13) | 11-Nov | 3,201.85 |
| Hang Seng | 22,903.98 | 63.8 | 63.4 | 66.3 | BUY* | Sep 13* | 22,903.98 | 23,822.06 | (30/01/13) | Jun-13 | 21,063.84 |
| Italy BCI | 956.14 | 78.8 | 77.2 | 69.2 | HOLD | Aug-12 | 1,129.42 | 1,150.23 | (29/04/11) | 11-Nov | 996.82 |
| S. Africa Gold | 1,247.26 | -220 | -205.8 | -190.1 | WAIT | Jun-12 | 2,524.83 | 2,668.53 | (6/06/12) | 12-Dec | 2,295.53 |
| S. Africa Industrial | 42,408.34 | 123.4 | 127.4 | 136.2 | WAIT | May 13* | 42,443.23 | 43,314.73 | (19/09/13) | Jun-13 | 39,919.33 |
| Straits Times | 3,138.86 | 50.6 | 59 | 67.9 | WAIT | Jul-12 | 2,987.49 | 3,454.37 | (22/05/13) | Jul-13 | 3,209.06 |
| Tokyo New S.E. | 1,183.12 | 262.7 | 236.8 | 211.8 | HOLD | Aug-12 | 748.73 | 1,276.03 | (22/05/13) | 12-Dec | 746 |
| Toronto Comp | 12,803.93 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 25.2 | HOLD | Aug-12 | 11,921.00 | 12,878.58 | (12/03/13) | 11-Nov | 12,383.20 |
| Toronto Gold | 1,621.03 | -190.7 | -177.9 | -173.6 | WAIT | Oct-12 | 2,842.54 | 2,952.41 | (5/10/12) | 12-Dec | 2,697.49 |
| Sweden OMX | 1,262.31 | 88.1 | 85.9 | 83.6 | HOLD | Jun-12 | 982.67 | 1,286.49 | (19/09/13) | 12-Dec | 1,044.48 |
| FTSE techMARK 100 | 2,972.10 | 129.4 | 128.7 | 127.2 | HOLD | July 12* | 2,283.04 | 3,022.86 | (16/09/13) | 11-Nov | 1,934.67 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 3,177.19 | 67.2 | 66.5 | 65.6 | HOLD | May 13* | 2,981.19 | 3,237.61 | (9/09/13) | Jan-13 | 2,736.90 |
*Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now waiting for the next sell signal. | |||||||||||
For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sign. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 16,014.30 | +282.8 | +226.5 | +194.1 | HOLD |
| FTSE Aim | 778.91 | +16.4 | +4.7 | -6.3 | HOLD |
| Brazil | 53,470.54 | -58.0 | -54.6 | -45.9 | WAIT |
| China | 2,416.85 | -4.1 | -14.3 | -18.0 | HOLD |
| Greece | 979.93 | +247.5 | +253.1 | +241.5 | SELL |
| India | 5,748.24 | +59.0 | +67.7 | +79.2 | WAIT |
| Indonesia | 4,346.43 | +79.5 | +92.4 | +103.0 | WAIT |
| Israel | 1,110.15 | +50.9 | +49.6 | +47.0 | HOLD |
| Mexico | 11,181.27 | +2.2 | +19.0 | +37.9 | WAIT |
| Philippines | 6,227.70 | +152.3 | +165.0 | +175.6 | WAIT |
| Poland | 49,249.63 | +86.8 | +88.7 | +85.7 | SELL |
| Portugal | 5,980.45 | +93.5 | +93.0 | +81.2 | HOLD |
| Russia | 15,700.13 | -44.1 | -46.0 | -45.1 | SELL |
| South Korea | 1,984.65 | +5.5 | +5.9 | +9.2 | WAIT |
| Spain | 901.89 | +81.6 | +77.3 | +62.9 | HOLD |
| Switzerland | 7,998.09 | +142.1 | +144.1 | +145.3 | WAIT |
| Thailand | 1,395.21 | +128.9 | +148.3 | +166.8 | WAIT |
| Turkey | 72,514.44 | +144.5 | +172.2 | +198.9 | WAIT |
| Venezuela | 1,570,275.00 | +1780.3 | +1638.5 | +1536.0 | HOLD |
Read previous IC/Coppock indicators here
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sign. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | 16,302.98 | -57.0 | -58.7 | -60.0 | HOLD |
| Oil & Gas | 7,822.68 | -17.5 | -17.1 | -14.9 | WAIT |
| Chemicals | 10,940.88 | +87.8 | +93.7 | +98.2 | WAIT |
| Constr & Bldg mats | 4,213.07 | +86.1 | +76.0 | +64.6 | HOLD |
| Forestry & paper | 12,545.02 | +350.4 | +327.7 | +295.7 | HOLD |
| Steel & other metals | 1,665.94 | -266.0 | -264.8 | -259.1 | WAIT |
| Aerospace & defence | 5,304.31 | +179.0 | +174.1 | +164.6 | HOLD |
| Diversified industrls | 3,347.21 | +142.2 | +138.7 | +136.4 | HOLD |
| Electronic & electr eqpt | 5,183.39 | +132.1 | +133.0 | +129.3 | SELL |
| Eng'g & machinery | 10,635.79 | +167.2 | +154.9 | +141.5 | HOLD |
| Automobiles & parts | 8,182.22 | +267.4 | +248.7 | +224.4 | HOLD |
| H'hold goods textiles | 4,904.95 | +597.0 | +549.6 | +478.9 | HOLD |
| Beverages | 14,693.16 | +129.9 | +141.1 | +152.5 | WAIT |
| Food producers | 6,962.12 | +144.0 | +154.0 | +160.2 | WAIT |
| Health | 4,434.72 | +103.0 | +107.3 | +107.2 | SELL |
| Personal care | 22,445.09 | +90.3 | +51.0 | +30.0 | HOLD |
| Pharmaceuticals | 10,980.35 | +69.4 | +63.9 | +57.7 | HOLD |
| Tobacco | 36,642.52 | +18.7 | +22.5 | +32.3 | WAIT |
| General retailers | 2,636.65 | +225.5 | +210.5 | +195.1 | HOLD |
| Leisure & hotels | 6,481.97 | +212.4 | +212.4 | +205.7 | HOLD |
| Media ent't | 6,174.68 | +164.5 | +157.6 | +151.6 | HOLD |
| Support services | 6,141.30 | +138.3 | +140.3 | +139.6 | SELL |
| Transport | 4,533.22 | +183.9 | +159.4 | +132.5 | HOLD |
| Food & drug rtlrs | 4,846.10 | +72.2 | +68.1 | +59.1 | HOLD |
| Telecommns svs | 3,975.36 | +231.4 | +221.4 | +207.0 | HOLD |
| Electricity | 9,907.73 | -0.3 | -12.9 | -31.2 | HOLD |
| Other utilities | 7,616.88 | +72.4 | +77.5 | +81.8 | WAIT |
| Banks | 4,909.71 | +182.5 | +186.4 | +180.7 | SELL |
| Insurance | 2,000.56 | +102.4 | +113.1 | +120.6 | WAIT |
| Life assurance | 6,356.66 | +211.0 | +213.2 | +209.6 | SELL |
| Investment cos | 6,964.75 | +99.4 | +97.2 | +93.1 | HOLD |
| Other finance | 6,092.07 | +215.4 | +211.2 | +199.6 | HOLD |
| IT hardware | 1,426.31 | +261.5 | +262.2 | +270.2 | WAIT |
| Software & comp svs | 1,259.08 | +163.9 | +167.1 | +166.3 | SELL |
*Average index for September 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
