November was yet another quiet month on the Coppock front. The few buy signals that appeared were almost all unofficial, and even though many indices continued to make new highs, there were nevertheless only a smattering of sells on minor indices and sectors – of the major markets we cover only South African Industrials gave a negative signal. Perhaps Coppock is telling us that markets still have further to run, as many commentators suggest is the case.
But why should we believe the signals the indicator generates? One reason would be that, looking back over its recent history, it appears to have worked well on the whole. If you’d followed the buy signals on most of the major markets Coppock spat out in the second half of 2012, you’d have been sitting on some extremely attractive gains. You’d also have done well to heed the sell signals on UK Gilts (a month after peaking in July 2012) and gold miners (last December) – gold miners have been annihilated by the prospect of tapering this year, and government bonds have slid lower, too, if not quite as spectacularly.
However, Coppock sells – and especially unofficial ones - should nevertheless be treated with caution. The Dow Jones, for example, gave a sell signal in January when the average index stood at 13,615 – it’s now up to 15,882, a 17 per cent upward move. The Dax has given two sell signals this year, first in April at 7,723 and again in August at 8,332 – it’s up 19 per cent since the first, which incidentally was followed by a buy signal just a month later. The Dax is registering an unofficial buy again this month. Aim gave an unofficial sell signal in April, too – it gave a buy a month later and now stands at 813, a 14 per cent upward move.
Perhaps this tells us that Coppock is in itself unable to differentiate between small wobbles in an overall upward trend and imminent large sell-offs, and that we should be looking for more pronounced weakening of the Coppock indicators – the Dax’s sell signal in April, for example, came off the back of a mere point slip, and the sell indicator on South African industrials this month has been similarly weak.
However, if we conclude that buy signals are more accurate, the indicator I’d be paying most attention to this month is the buy on the FTSE Miners – the sector has been in the wars for so long that there’s every possibility that November has indeed marked its nadir.
MAJOR INDICES
| Index/market | Average Index Nov-13* | Nov | Oct | Sep | Signal† | Month of last buy signal | Monthly average index then | Index peak since last buy signal | Month of last sell signal | Monthly average index then | |
| UK Govt. Secs | 162.29 | -28.5 | -25.7 | -23.0 | WAIT | Aug 11†† | 163.26 | 177.08 | (24/07/12) | 08/12 | 175.55 |
| FT 30 | 2,770.74 | +173.5 | +169.1 | +165.3 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 1,952.99 | 2,820.70 | (31/10/13) | 11/11 | 1,861.57 |
| FTSE 100 | 6,694.32 | +77.5 | +74.5 | +73.9 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 5,636.46 | 6,840.27 | (22/05/13) | 11/11 | 5,271.31 |
| FTSE All-Share | 3,563.54 | +89.7 | +86.5 | +85.8 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 3,010.36 | 3,609.71 | (30/10/13) | 11/11 | 2,737.66 |
| FT Gold Mines | 1,449.13 | -248.1 | -234.7 | -216.9 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 3,213.21 | 3,330.73 | (01/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,982.77 |
| Amsterdam | 596.44 | +65.9 | +60.1 | +57.5 | HOLD | Oct 13†† | 579.74 | 599.85 | (25/11/13) | 07/13 | 552.16 |
| ASX All Ord | 5,361.60 | +98.3 | +94.2 | +92.7 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 4,181.70 | 5,437.30 | (28/10/13) | 11/11 | 4,285.50 |
| S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 13,727.05 | +39.6 | +28.2 | +18.5 | HOLD | May 13 | 13,183.19 | 14,371.48 | (27/09/13) | 04/13 | 12,770.42 |
| Belgium S.E. | 10,520.75 | +88.2 | +82.2 | +80.4 | HOLD | Oct 13†† | 10,300.31 | 10,624.11 | (11/11/13) | 06/13 | 9,017.25 |
| Dax (Germany) | 9,170.55 | +122.9 | +116.8 | +117.6 | BUY* | Nov 13†† | 9,170.55 | 9,405.30 | (29/11/13) | 08/13 | 8,332.46 |
| Dow Jones | 15,881.61 | +94.2 | +85.3 | +84.5 | HOLD | Mar 13†† | 14,418.26 | 16,097.33 | (27/11/13) | 01/13 | 13,615.32 |
| Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 4,451.13 | +165.8 | +155.1 | +146.9 | HOLD | Mar 13†† | 3,883.38 | 4,511.09 | (28/11/13) | 02/13 | 3,641.55 |
| France CAC 40 | 4,279.88 | +114.3 | +108.5 | +102.7 | HOLD | Jul 12 | 3,199.55 | 4,320.68 | (18/11/13) | 11/11 | 3,201.85 |
| Hang Seng | 23,304.52 | +55.9 | +59.7 | +63.8 | WAIT | Sep 13 | 22,903.98 | 23,881.29 | (29/11/13) | 10/13 | 23,096.68 |
| Italy BCI | 1,036.56 | +100.2 | +88.3 | +78.8 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 1,129.42 | 1,150.23 | (29/04/11) | 11/11 | 996.82 |
| S. Africa Gold | 1,257.68 | -241.7 | -232.4 | -220.0 | WAIT | Jun 12 | 2,524.83 | 2,668.53 | (06/06/12) | 12/12 | 2,295.53 |
| S. Africa Industrial | 43,386.55 | +122.9 | +123.8 | +123.4 | SELL | Oct 13†† | 43,473.10 | 44,487.24 | (30/10/13) | 11/13 | 43,386.55 |
| Straits Times | 3,187.38 | +40.1 | +43.7 | +50.6 | WAIT | Jul 12 | 2,987.49 | 3,454.37 | (22/05/13) | 07/13 | 3,209.06 |
| Tokyo New S.E. | 1,221.00 | +303.2 | +285.2 | +262.7 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 748.73 | 1,276.03 | (22/05/13) | 12/12 | 746.00 |
| Toronto Comp | 13,396.08 | +34.6 | +29.0 | +27.5 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 11,921.00 | 13,482.57 | (15/11/13) | 11/11 | 12,383.20 |
| Toronto Gold | 1,448.80 | -218.1 | -205.9 | -190.7 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 2,842.54 | 2,952.41 | (05/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,697.49 |
| Sweden OMX | 1,292.55 | +98.8 | +92.2 | +88.1 | HOLD | Jun 12 | 982.67 | 1,315.21 | (28/11/13) | 12/12 | 1,044.48 |
| FTSE techMARK 100 | 3,009.47 | +132.1 | +129.9 | +129.4 | HOLD | July 12†† | 2,283.04 | 3,051.53 | (30/10/13) | 11/11 | 1,934.67 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 3,402.83 | +93.7 | +75.8 | +67.2 | HOLD | May 13†† | 2,981.19 | 3,487.82 | (29/11/13) | 01/13 | 2,736.90 |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
EMERGING MARKETS
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index* | Nov | Oct | Sep | Sign.† |
| Argentina | 18,096.03 | +417.6 | +352.3 | +282.8 | HOLD |
| FTSE Aim | 813.42 | +44.1 | +28.3 | +16.4 | HOLD |
| Brazil | 52,856.21 | -55.1 | -57.1 | -58.0 | HOLD |
| China | 2,375.87 | +8.7 | +1.7 | -4.1 | HOLD |
| Greece | 1,157.90 | +240.8 | +241.1 | +247.5 | WAIT |
| India | 6,122.68 | +47.5 | +51.9 | +59.0 | WAIT |
| Indonesia | 4,362.74 | +54.7 | +68.4 | +79.5 | WAIT |
| Israel | 1,199.62 | +54.0 | +50.7 | +50.9 | BUY†† |
| Mexico | 11,056.99 | -34.8 | -17.7 | +2.2 | WAIT |
| Philippines | 6,282.78 | +127.7 | +142.3 | +152.3 | WAIT |
| Poland | 54,106.14 | +97.0 | +90.0 | +86.8 | HOLD |
| Portugal | 6,364.71 | +98.5 | +94.0 | +93.5 | HOLD |
| Russia | 16,191.32 | -27.2 | -37.0 | -44.1 | HOLD |
| South Korea | 2,009.92 | +12.7 | +8.4 | +5.5 | HOLD |
| Spain | 991.43 | +109.9 | +96.7 | +81.6 | HOLD |
| Switzerland | 8,258.23 | +136.4 | +138.1 | +142.1 | WAIT |
| Thailand | 1,397.60 | +95.9 | +113.0 | +128.9 | WAIT |
| Turkey | 74,801.44 | +98.1 | +122.9 | +144.5 | WAIT |
| Venezuela | 2,449,963.00 | +2143.3 | +1918.4 | +1780.3 | HOLD |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
FTSE SECTORS
| IC/Coppock Indicator | Index* | Nov | Oct | Sep | Sign.† |
| Mining | 16,054.13 | -55.1 | -57.2 | -57.0 | BUY |
| Oil & Gas | 8,083.37 | -9.1 | -16.8 | -17.5 | HOLD |
| Chemicals | 10,670.66 | +85.5 | +86.5 | +87.8 | WAIT |
| Constr & Bldg mats | 4,436.81 | +121.7 | +101.5 | +86.1 | HOLD |
| Forestry & paper | 1,212.25 | +213.5 | +357.3 | +350.4 | SELL |
| Steel & other metals | 1,464.24 | -268.6 | -267.0 | -266.0 | WAIT |
| Aerospace & defence | 5,421.80 | +189.2 | +182.0 | +179.0 | HOLD |
| Diversified industrls | 3,513.25 | +151.9 | +145.1 | +142.2 | HOLD |
| Electronic & electr eqpt | 5,299.73 | +139.3 | +134.2 | +132.1 | HOLD |
| Eng'g & machinery | 10,601.88 | +184.0 | +177.8 | +167.2 | HOLD |
| Automobiles & parts | 8,718.00 | +325.3 | +295.9 | +267.4 | HOLD |
| H'hold goods textiles | 5,749.90 | +679.1 | +639.4 | +597.0 | HOLD |
| Beverages | 14,742.19 | +105.9 | +117.5 | +129.9 | WAIT |
| Food producers | 7,236.24 | +119.8 | +130.8 | +144.0 | WAIT |
| Health | 4,600.18 | +106.9 | +102.3 | +103.0 | BUY†† |
| Personal care | 20,953.16 | +130.4 | +120.8 | +90.3 | HOLD |
| Pharmaceuticals | 11,384.71 | +85.2 | +73.4 | +69.4 | HOLD |
| Tobacco | 37,555.91 | +14.7 | +15.8 | +18.7 | WAIT |
| General retailers | 2,687.63 | +235.4 | +230.4 | +225.5 | HOLD |
| Leisure & hotels | 6,684.84 | +209.4 | +211.0 | +212.4 | WAIT |
| Media ent't | 6,476.46 | +182.2 | +172.6 | +164.5 | HOLD |
| Support services | 6,233.34 | +135.4 | +135.7 | +138.3 | WAIT |
| Transport | 4,800.75 | +228.5 | +204.4 | +183.9 | HOLD |
| Food & drug rtlrs | 4,773.04 | +82.4 | +79.1 | +72.2 | HOLD |
| Telecommns svs | 4,384.46 | +271.6 | +249.9 | +231.4 | HOLD |
| Electricity | 8,941.01 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.3 | SELL†† |
| Other utilities | 7,475.36 | +61.7 | +65.7 | +72.4 | WAIT |
| Banks | 4,833.89 | +156.1 | +171.1 | +182.5 | WAIT |
| Insurance | 2,072.10 | +91.1 | +94.6 | +102.4 | WAIT |
| Life assurance | 6,786.38 | +212.8 | +212.5 | +211.0 | HOLD |
| Investment cos | 7,124.92 | +102.2 | +100.1 | +99.4 | HOLD |
| Other finance | 6,358.14 | +222.6 | +217.9 | +215.4 | HOLD |
| IT hardware | 1,430.47 | +234.7 | +258.1 | +261.5 | WAIT |
| Software & comp svs | 1,231.28 | +154.1 | +157.5 | +163.9 | WAIT |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here
