After a quiet November for Coppock all hell broke loose in December, with no fewer than five sell signals across the major markets we cover, including the FTSE 100 and All-share, and a flurry of sells at a FTSE sector level - notably the general retail and household goods & home construction sectors, both of which were notable beneficiaries of the UK's housing-led recovery in 2013
Whether this marks a genuine turning point in the markets is by no means clear, however. As we explained last month, Coppock sell signals have often had a habit of reversing rather quickly - support, maybe, for the purists' view that the Coppock system should be heeded when identifying only buying opportunities.
And while the average level of the FTSE 100, for example, fell in December to trigger the warning, the month really was, to purloin a footballing cliche, a game of two halves. The UK and other major markets softened in the first two weeks, only to roar back into life in the second as Santa delivered his traditional festive rally to approach five year highs. In short, the average index level upon which Coppock is calculated didn't necessarily reflect the market's progress.
What's more, the consensus among market commentators is that the good times will continue to roll in 2014 for developed markets, if not for emerging market investors; those indices recorded more sells in December, as Fed tapering talk became a reality. And digging into the FTSE sectors again, it seems any nervousness that government attempts to cool the housing market were forgotten come Christmas - as the graph shows, household goods also enjoyed the late December uplift, although retail continued to look rather soggy as fears of a Christmas trading washout mounted.
MAJOR INDICES
Index/market | Average Index Dec-13* | Dec | Nov | Oct | Signal† | Month of last buy signal | Monthly average index then | Index peak since last buy signal | Month of last sell signal | Monthly average index then | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UK Govt. Secs | 160.17 | -31.2 | -28.5 | -25.7 | WAIT | Aug 11†† | 163.26 | 177.08 | (24/07/12) | 12/12 | 175.55 |
FT 30 | 2,718.83 | +168.9 | +173.5 | +169.1 | SELL | Jul 12 | 1,952.99 | 2,820.70 | (31/10/13) | 12/13 | 2,718.83 |
FTSE 100 | 6,586.89 | +75.4 | +77.5 | +74.5 | SELL | Jul 12 | 5,636.46 | 6,840.27 | (22/05/13) | 12/13 | 6,586.89 |
FTSE All-Share | 3,521.71 | +87.9 | +89.7 | +86.5 | SELL | Aug 12 | 3,010.36 | 3,609.71 | (30/10/13) | 12/13 | 3,521.71 |
FT Gold Mines | 1,299.27 | -260.6 | -248.1 | -234.7 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 3,213.21 | 3,330.73 | (01/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,982.77 |
Amsterdam | 589.73 | +66.7 | +65.9 | +60.1 | HOLD | Oct 13†† | 579.74 | 607.98 | (31/12/13) | 07/13 | 552.16 |
ASX All Ord | 5,222.90 | +94.7 | +98.3 | +94.2 | SELL | Jul 12 | 4,181.70 | 5,437.30 | (28/10/13) | 12/13 | 5,222.90 |
S&P/ASX 200 Energy | 13,277.50 | +44.0 | +39.6 | +28.2 | HOLD | May 13 | 13,183.19 | 14,371.48 | (27/09/13) | 04/13 | 12,770.42 |
Belgium S.E. | 10,343.23 | +90.3 | +88.2 | +82.2 | HOLD | Oct 13†† | 10,300.31 | 10,673.80 | (31/12/13) | 06/13 | 9,017.25 |
Dax (Germany) | 9,289.31 | +124.5 | +122.9 | +116.8 | HOLD | Nov 13†† | 9,170.55 | 9,589.39 | (27/12/13) | 08/13 | 8,332.46 |
Dow Jones | 16,106.75 | +101.0 | +94.2 | +85.3 | HOLD | Mar 13†† | 14,418.26 | 16,576.66 | (31/12/13) | 01/13 | 13,615.32 |
Rep of Ireland (ISEQ) | 4,436.89 | +171.3 | +165.8 | +155.1 | HOLD | Mar 13†† | 3,883.38 | 4,548.90 | (27/12/13) | 02/13 | 3,641.55 |
France CAC 40 | 4,172.21 | +110.5 | +114.3 | +108.5 | SELL | Jul 12 | 3,199.55 | 4,320.68 | (18/11/13) | 12/13 | 4,172.21 |
Hang Seng | 23,376.33 | +50.1 | +55.9 | +59.7 | WAIT | Sep 13 | 22,903.98 | 24,038.55 | (02/12/13) | 10/13 | 23,096.68 |
Italy BCI | 1,012.43 | +104.0 | +100.2 | +88.3 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 1,129.42 | 1,150.23 | (29/04/11) | 11/11 | 996.82 |
S. Africa Gold | 1,040.81 | -255.4 | -241.7 | -232.4 | WAIT | Jun 12 | 2,524.83 | 2,668.53 | (06/06/12) | 12/12 | 2,295.53 |
S. Africa Industrial | 43,284.80 | +118.1 | +122.9 | +123.8 | WAIT | Oct 13†† | 43,473.10 | 44,580.20 | (30/12/13) | 11/13 | 43,386.55 |
Straits Times | 3,115.51 | +30.5 | +40.1 | +43.7 | WAIT | Jul 12 | 2,987.49 | 3,454.37 | (22/05/13) | 07/13 | 3,209.06 |
Tokyo New S.E. | 1,257.03 | +309.9 | +303.2 | +285.2 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 748.73 | 1,302.29 | (30/12/13) | 12/12 | 746.00 |
Toronto Comp | 13,357.17 | +38.0 | +34.6 | +29.0 | HOLD | Aug 12 | 11,921.00 | 13,621.55 | (31/12/13) | 11/11 | 12,383.20 |
Toronto Gold | 1,353.19 | -227.1 | -218.1 | -205.9 | WAIT | Oct 12 | 2,842.54 | 2,952.41 | (05/10/12) | 12/12 | 2,697.49 |
Sweden OMX | 1,293.47 | +99.9 | +98.8 | +92.2 | HOLD | Jun 12 | 982.67 | 1,334.42 | (27/12/13) | 12/12 | 1,044.48 |
FTSE techMARK 100 | 3,095.41 | +133.8 | +132.1 | +129.9 | HOLD | July 12†† | 2,283.04 | 3,205.21 | (03/12/13) | 11/11 | 1,934.67 |
Nasdaq 100 | 3,515.20 | +112.2 | +93.7 | +75.8 | HOLD | May 13†† | 2,981.19 | 3,592.00 | (13/12/13) | 01/13 | 2,736.90 |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
EMERGING MARKETS
IC/Coppock Indicator | Index* | Dec | Nov | Oct | Sign.† |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 16,630.07 | +437.2 | +417.6 | +352.3 | HOLD |
FTSE Aim | 828.40 | +60.2 | +44.1 | +28.3 | HOLD |
Brazil | 50,945.47 | -59.3 | -55.1 | -57.1 | SELL†† |
China | 2,373.83 | +10.1 | +8.7 | +1.7 | HOLD |
Greece | 1,165.31 | +233.2 | +240.8 | +241.1 | WAIT |
India | 6,249.62 | +43.1 | +47.5 | +51.9 | WAIT |
Indonesia | 4,223.76 | +39.6 | +54.7 | +68.4 | WAIT |
Israel | 1,207.81 | +57.5 | +54.0 | +50.7 | HOLD |
Mexico | 11,454.55 | -49.8 | -34.8 | -17.7 | WAIT |
Philippines | 5,941.32 | +103.7 | +127.7 | +142.3 | WAIT |
Poland | 52,023.31 | +92.1 | +97.0 | +90.0 | SELL |
Portugal | 6,485.25 | +98.4 | +98.5 | +94.0 | SELL |
Russia | 15,979.05 | -22.4 | -27.2 | -37.0 | HOLD |
South Korea | 1,992.37 | +12.3 | +12.7 | +8.4 | SELL |
Spain | 979.16 | +114.7 | +109.9 | +96.7 | HOLD |
Switzerland | 8,050.70 | +127.7 | +136.4 | +138.1 | WAIT |
Thailand | 1,345.25 | +72.1 | +95.9 | +113.0 | WAIT |
Turkey | 71,086.38 | +66.2 | +98.1 | +122.9 | WAIT |
Venezuela | 2,653,390.00 | +2290.5 | +2143.3 | +1918.4 | HOLD |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.
FTSE SECTORS
For a list of the constituents of the FTSE All-Share sector indices click here
IC/Coppock Indicator | Index* | Dec | Nov | Oct | Sign.† |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mining | 15,347.57 | -61.4 | -55.1 | -57.2 | SELL†† |
Oil & Gas | 8,039.80 | -2.1 | -9.1 | -16.8 | HOLD |
Chemicals | 11,203.75 | +85.7 | +85.5 | +86.5 | BUY†† |
Constr & Bldg mats | 4,320.82 | +130.4 | +121.7 | +101.5 | HOLD |
Forestry & paper | 11,453.05 | +214.1 | +213.5 | +357.3 | BUY†† |
Steel & other metals | 1,365.22 | -274.8 | -268.6 | -267.0 | WAIT |
Aerospace & defence | 5,405.73 | +189.2 | +189.2 | +182.0 | SELL |
Diversified industrls | 3,558.47 | +154.0 | +151.9 | +145.1 | HOLD |
Electronic & electr eqpt | 5,543.74 | +142.3 | +139.3 | +134.2 | HOLD |
Eng'g & machinery | 10,313.14 | +178.5 | +184.0 | +177.8 | SELL |
Automobiles & parts | 8,616.09 | +336.1 | +325.3 | +295.9 | HOLD |
H'hold goods textiles | 5,651.85 | +670.6 | +679.1 | +639.4 | SELL |
Beverages | 14,250.11 | +90.3 | +105.9 | +117.5 | WAIT |
Food producers | 7,173.94 | +104.9 | +119.8 | +130.8 | WAIT |
Health | 4,844.93 | +112.3 | +106.9 | +102.3 | HOLD |
Personal care | 20,977.29 | +134.9 | +130.4 | +120.8 | HOLD |
Pharmaceuticals | 11,422.48 | +92.8 | +85.2 | +73.4 | HOLD |
Tobacco | 35,850.02 | +9.1 | +14.7 | +15.8 | WAIT |
General retailers | 2,621.17 | +232.3 | +235.4 | +230.4 | SELL |
Leisure & hotels | 6,895.44 | +206.1 | +209.4 | +211.0 | WAIT |
Media ent't | 6,372.86 | +183.3 | +182.2 | +172.6 | HOLD |
Support services | 6,217.39 | +133.2 | +135.4 | +135.7 | WAIT |
Transport | 4,775.28 | +244.4 | +228.5 | +204.4 | HOLD |
Food & drug rtlrs | 4,524.75 | +74.2 | +82.4 | +79.1 | SELL |
Telecommns svs | 4,384.34 | +283.0 | +271.6 | +249.9 | HOLD |
Electricity | 8,957.72 | -4.1 | -1.8 | -0.2 | WAIT |
Other utilities | 7,296.04 | +53.5 | +61.7 | +65.7 | WAIT |
Banks | 4,701.79 | +134.3 | +156.1 | +171.1 | WAIT |
Insurance | 2,048.62 | +82.2 | +91.1 | +94.6 | WAIT |
Life assurance | 6,768.88 | +205.9 | +212.8 | +212.5 | SELL |
Investment cos | 7,071.82 | +100.0 | +102.2 | +100.1 | SELL |
Other finance | 6,463.43 | +224.2 | +222.6 | +217.9 | HOLD |
IT hardware | 1,509.66 | +216.5 | +234.7 | +258.1 | WAIT |
Software & comp svs | 1,265.61 | +148.0 | +154.1 | +157.5 | WAIT |
*Average index for November 2013. †IC/Coppock indicator. ††Unofficial signal. BUY/SELL = self explanatory; WAIT = you sold at the last sell signal and are now waiting for the next buy signal; HOLD = you bought at the last buy signal and are now awaiting the next sell signal.