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Unilever beats expectations

TIP UPDATE: Food and personal care giant Unilever has surprised the market with better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales, but currency headwinds and a slowdown in emerging markets growth loom large this year.
January 21, 2014

After a tricky start to the second half, all eyes were on Unilever's (ULVR) fourth-quarter sales. Much to the market's surprise, the food and personal care giant actually beat expectations. Currency headwinds and a slowdown in emerging markets should have made the final quarter tough, but thanks to margin improvements, earnings turned out to be about 4 per cent higher than forecast. Meanwhile, underlying sales were 4.1 per cent higher - also slightly better than expected.

IC TIP: Buy at 2,523p

Currency headwinds dampened full-year reported sales growth, but strip these out and underlying revenue was 4.3 per cent higher. Chief executive Paul Polman said product innovation, low-margin business disposals, cost savings and an 110 basis-point improvement in the gross margin all helped push the crucial operating margin 40 basis points higher, to 14.1 per cent.

Otherwise, it was the usual story of a two-speed Unilever, with emerging markets outpacing developed ones, and the home and personal care categories outperforming the food and refreshment ones. Emerging market growth may not have been as pacey as in previous years, but the bloc, which accounted for 57 per cent of group revenue, still saw sales rise 8.7 per cent. Latin America even experienced double-digit year-on-year growth in the final quarter. Unilever's developed markets, by comparison, saw revenue slump 1.3 per cent, as flat growth in Europe and declines in North America offset a decent showing in the UK.

Food was another weak point. The segment managed just 0.3 per cent underlying sales growth, hampered by the struggling North American spreads business and weak ice-cream sales within the refreshments division. In contrast, home-care sales jumped 8 per cent, while personal care enjoyed a 7.3 per cent rise. Dove soap and laundry detergents were particularly popular, while household cleaners such as Domestos bleach seemingly flew off the shelves in the final quarter.

Broker Panmure Gordon expects underlying EPS of 157¢ for 2014, down from 158¢ in 2013, as weakening emerging market currencies offset underlying growth.

UNILEVER (ULVR)
ORD PRICE:2,523pMARKET VALUE:£76bn*
TOUCH:2,522-2,523p12-MONTH HIGH:2,908pLOW: 2,312p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.5%PE RATIO:18
NET ASSET VALUE:478¢**NET DEBT:57%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (€bn)Pre-tax profit (€bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (p)
200939.84.912141.3
201044.36.115171.2
201146.56.315177.6
201251.36.515478.9
201349.87.117188.9
% change-3+9+11+13

Ex-div: 5 Feb

Payment: 12 Mar

*Reflects combined value of Unilever plc and Unilever NV

**Includes intangible assets of €20.9m, or 697¢ a share

£1=€1.21