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Mondi mends pricing

RESULTS: Mondi is pushing through price increases that could drive earnings upgrades
March 3, 2014

Big acquisitions made at the end of 2012 have been a significant growth driver for Mondi (MNDI), but even after stripping them out, the packaging company still increased its profits by 11 per cent. It should grow again this year, too, as price weakness towards the end of 2013 is reversed and the bulk of a €500m (£413m) investment programme - mostly to reduce energy costs - delivers returns.

IC TIP: Buy at 1,078p

Excluding £67m of asset write-downs following plant closures and restructuring, operating profit jumped 22 per cent to €699m. Higher prices and better volumes at the packaging paper business - where profit rose almost a third to €298m - were instrumental. Chief executive David Hathorn admits the story has been more one of supply constraint than demand growth, and says "a bit of competitor action" depressed prices late last year. Yet pricing is firming up again: Mondi is currently negotiating price increases for so-called kraftliner packaging paper from April. That, says broker Jefferies, raises the possibility of earnings upgrades later this year. It currently expects adjusted pre-tax profit of €634m this year and adjusted EPS of 101¢ (from €586m and 95¢ in 2013).

And being a net exporter from emerging markets, where currencies have weakened versus the euro, should deliver a significant currency tailwind in 2014. The rand's slump certainly flattered the South African business last year.

MONDI (MNDI)

ORD PRICE:1,078pMARKET VALUE:£5.2bn
TOUCH:1,078-1,080p12-MONTH HIGH:1,131pLOW: 746p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.8%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:534¢*NET DEBT:57%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (€bn)Pre-tax profit (€m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20095.2649-6.59.5
20105.6133337.820
20115.7445757.526
20125.7936850.128
20136.4849979.836
% change+12+36+59+29

Ex-div: 23 Apr

Payment: 22 May

*Includes intangible assets of €675m, or 139¢ a share

£1=€1.21