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Opinion

Next week's economics: 22-25 April

Next week's economics: 22-25 April
April 17, 2014
Next week's economics: 22-25 April

Purchasing managers' surveys on Wednesday are expected to show that output is falling in China, possibly at its fastest rate since the crisis of 2009. However, they should also show that the eurozone is growing steadily - perhaps with the service sector posting its fastest expansion for three years. This picture should be corroborated by the National Bank of Belgium's business barometer, which might also show that growth is near a three-year high.

Germany's Ifo survey, however, might put a small cloud over this by showing a slight slowdown, perhaps because of concerns about exports to China. Even so, it should be consistent with decent overall growth.

The eurozone's upturn is helping the UK. The CBI's quarterly survey of manufacturers on Wednesday is likely to report rising orders and output. Of especial interest will be investment intentions. Both the Bank of England and OBR expect a big rise in capital spending, and unless investment intentions rise, there will be doubts about such optimism.

However, retailers might not be in such great health. Official figures on Friday might show that sales fell in March, albeit after a big rise in February. Although this would imply decent quarter-on-quarter growth, such an expansion would be less than we saw in the first half of last year. This picture could be corroborated by the CBI's survey of retailers, which might show that sales growth in early April was also modest. This will warn us that although the squeeze on real wages is abating, it is still holding back retail sales.

US figures might also point to a shift in growth from the personal to industrial sector. Tuesday's numbers could show that sales of existing houses have fallen in the last year, and Wednesday's should show that sales of new houses are lower than last summer. This would corroborate surveys of house prices, which also point to the upturn in the housing market coming to an end.

By contrast, durable goods orders on Thursday should post a third successive rise, suggesting that industry is doing a little better - although growth is steady rather than booming.

We'll get an insight into the thinking of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee when it releases minutes of its latest meeting. These should show that the MPC is in no hurry to raise rates.