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The new rules of retail

Mobile technology is changing the way we live - and in particular the way we shop. Julia Bradshaw finds out which technology providers and which retailers are coming out on top in this new world
August 22, 2014 & IC writers

How many mobile devices do you own? Two, three? If you’re a family of four, the answer is likely to be at least that, probably closer to six: one mobile phone each, plus a couple of tablets - one for the parents and one for the kids. It’s pretty astounding, then, to think that just 16 years ago tablets didn’t exist (as we know them today), and neither did smartphones. In the United States, where your writer grew up, owning a mobile phone at all in the late 1990s was the preserve of the wealthy. Not so today. For children, mobile technology has become as mainstream as running water. Give three-year-olds an old Nokia and they won’t understand why nothing happens when they slide their grubby little fingers across the screen. As for those grubby paws, we don’t think twice about letting our toddlers use our tablets to watch Peppa Pig or play games - thanks in part to a steep decline in the retail value of such products. Back track to when Steve Jobs unveiled the first ever iPad, and doing so would have been utterly unthinkable.

Of all the changes over the past two decades, none has been so game-changing for the way we live our lives as mobile technology. From farmers in far-flung corners of Africa checking crop prices in nearby market towns to businessmen downloading boarding passes en route to the airport, to shopaholics comparing prices in-store, mobile devices have transformed our planet. One of the most drastic changes, though, has got to be the effect it has had on commerce. Mobile shopping, or m-commerce, has changed the retail landscape forever. The internet might have opened up a new trading platform, but mobile commerce has been instrumental in reaching more people, creating a global marketplace from which to sell, buy, advertise and bid on anything we want from anywhere in the world. And by all accounts, the rate at which we use our smartphones and tablets to shop is only going to increase - so companies had better be ready. As for investors looking for the next big thing in technology, m-commerce could be a good place to start, given that many companies who enable the technology and make use of it stand to gain from its proliferation. The internet was groundbreaking for a number of industries and there’s reason to believe mobile commerce is gearing up to be equally disruptive.

THE HARD FACTS

That’s because mobile sales growth is far outstripping wider sales growth in the retail world: total retail sales in the UK will rise just 3.6 per cent this year. By contrast, e-commerce sales are expected to rise 16 per cent and the growth trajectory for m-commerce is even steeper, with a whopping 64.8 per cent increase on the cards, according to data from eMarketer. “E-commerce is certainly driving retail sales, but if you break that down, it is mobile commerce that is the real engine of growth,” says Bill Fisher, UK analyst for eMarketer. “So, while e-commerce is very important, mobile commerce is even more important. Mobile device ownership is rising rapidly and consumers are becoming more comfortable making purchases on these devices. Tablets, in particular, offer a larger and more tactile interface for online shopping.”

But if mobile shopping is growing fast, it still represents a small proportion of overall UK retail sales, so there’s plenty of room for further expansion: this year, total retail sales in the UK are expected to reach just over £400bn. E-commerce will account for 13 per cent of the total, and mobile commerce just over one quarter of online sales. Fast-forward to 2018, and online sales in the UK are forecast to grow to 17.6 per cent of total retail sales, while mobile commerce sales as a proportion of e-commerce will account for 38 per cent.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Understanding how consumers use smartphones and tablets to transact, and what they expect in terms of functionality, is important for retailers because if they don’t meet the needs of their customers, they’ll lose out in a big way. Julie Palmer, a retail expert at Begbies Traynor, says understanding m-commerce is “extremely important” for retailers, not only because it is where the real growth is coming from in the sector, but because, according to her data, one third of retail sales are now transacted via mobile devices. So, if a company like Marks & Spencer (MKS) doesn’t offer a quick-loading mobile friendly version of its website, it will lose sales. A couple of years ago we might have had more patience. But with the advent of 3G, 4G and even 5G, if a mobile site is not optimised, shoppers will go elsewhere at the click of a button. “People expect to be able to sit on a bus or train and browse and buy,” points out John Stevenson, a retail analyst for Peel Hunt. “They expect to be able to download apps from their favourite retailers to make their shopping experience better. Those retailers who offer that end up engaging better with customers and generally have better conversion rates. Traffic is very much being driven by mobile and if you don’t have a workable platform - integrating mobile, desktop and tablet - you will lose out.”

Heaps of innovative functions are making mobile shopping a breeze: double tap to zoom - a feature whereby you can touch an item on screen and it pops up instantly without having to download a new page; one-click checkout; auto-saving shopping baskets across all devices; storing payment details and finally, a multitude of delivery options, from next day, click and collect to CollectPlus - the latter allows customers to collect orders from their local corner shops. What’s more, consumers are increasingly expecting to be able to go into a bricks and mortar store and use free Wi-Fi to compare products, scan bar codes and perhaps order a garment from the mobile website to be delivered at home should the product be out of stock - this is particularly true of big, bulky items. They also expect to be able to make returns either through the post or via the shop. “It’s all about joining up the dots,” explains Mr Fisher from eMarketer. “Mobility means there has been a real acceleration in shoppers crossing a number of different channels before making a purchase: a person might begin the retail journey at home on a tablet, then go to the physical store to check out the product, perhaps comparing prices on a smartphone through an app, and then complete the purchase there or head back home and do so on a computer. Smartphones have enabled this cross-selling behaviour and if they’re not part of a retailer’s arsenal, that retailer will struggle.”

Many companies are already offering these services. Leading the pack are the likes of the online pureplays - Asos (ASC), Boohoo (BOO) and Amazon (US: AMZ), as well as Game Digital (GMD), which has restyled itself as a technology-first entity, having listed on the stock market a few months ago after going bust some years earlier. Game Digital has its own in-house proprietary payment system which it is now white-labelling for use across a number of its suppliers. In layman’s terms, that means shoppers are given a ‘Game Wallet’ that stores their reward points and cash, which they can use to pay for products with Game, but also with other companies, in the same way you would use a debit card.

“It’s a payment mechanism,” explains chief executive Martyn Gibbs. “Most of our technology is built in-house partnering with various tech companies, and Game Wallet is at the heart of what we do. We act as a payment provider and marketing channel. So we can tell customers about a new product and take them to the website where they can pay for it using their Game Wallet credit. We know what kind of products they like, so we can target them directly. They earn reward points every time they shop with us.”

Indeed, succeeding with mobile commerce means understanding how people use their tablets and smartphones, and then, armed with the data, how to target them. For example, smartphones tend to be the first things we look at in the morning, and the last things we glance at before going to bed. Tesco’s smartphone app plays into this by allowing shoppers to add to their order at any time, even if it has already been placed. So, if you’ve forgotten something right before you switch off the light to go to bed, you can pop it onto the list. “That’s what I call functionality,” says Mr Fisher. “It is incredibly important that these kinds of features are offered. If retailers don't go down the mobile route, they are threatening their own existence.”

VIRTUAL REALITY

There are other, more cutting-edge aspects of mobile commerce that are only just starting to be introduced in the UK, offering a glimpse of how the retail landscape might look in a few years' time. E-vouchers are already widely used, but many stores are now using them to engage with customers on a totally different level. Shops are experimenting with ‘beacon’ technology, which beams a voucher or other information to your phone as you’re walking past the store. The technology uses Bluetooth to transmit information, such as special offers and new ranges, to customers as they pass by or enter a shop. Apple has apparently been testing its iBeacon since December in US retail stores, while Virgin Atlantic is conducting a trial at Heathrow Airport, Tesco is testing it in London and there is even talk that Regent Street is working with retailers to pilot the technology. However, the latest high tech-retail wizardry to hit the UK's high streets is even weirder: mannequins beaming images of clothes to your phone as you pass by (assuming you have installed the app). Created by London-based company Iconeme, the mannequins are embedded with its VMBeacon, similar to Apple’s iBeacon, and when a customer nears it, the app transmits information about the clothes on display, such as price and sizes, and links to purchase. Users can even share the information on social media sites. It’s a way for retailers to connect with customers who already use their smartphones in-store, effectively joining the bricks and mortar experience with the mobile one. The shops participating in the trial include House of Fraser, Hawes and Curtis and Bentalls in Kingston upon Thames. Iconeme is planning to expand both in the UK and US.

Rich opportunities for the technology providers

By Theron Mohamed

As mobile commerce picks up pace, the pressure is on network providers, payment processors and retailers to offer a simple, safe and reliable transaction infrastructure.

Monitise(MONI) addresses that need with a global “bank, pay and buy” platform that connects over 30m banks, retailers, carriers and consumers. Moreover, it recently bought Markco Media - owner of MyVoucherCodes.co.uk - which added more than 60,000 brands and retailers to its platform

Similarly, Bango’s (BGO) technology enables mobile operators, retailers and app stores to collect payments, integrating the billing systems of mobile operators around the world into a common platform and thereby reducing the cost and time to market for digital merchants, across the globe. At the same time, its technology identifies and verifies users to check for fraud and selects the best payment option for both customers and merchants, such as one-click.

Optimal Payments(OPAY) allows gamblers to store their funds in an online wallet. And eServGlobal (ESG) targets the 2.5bn people worldwide that own mobile phones but lack access to financial services - it lets them use their handsets to pay bills and transfer money.

Larger companies also see m-commerce as big business. PayPoint (PAY) which lets consumers rent bikes and pay for parking using their mobile phones, grew its first-quarter mobile transactions by 45 per cent to 10.3m. And PayPal, owned by auction specialist eBay, doubled its mobile payment volumes to $27bn (£15.9bn) last year and helped attract 14m mobile customers to eBay. It also launched 'PayPal Here' - a mobile payments solution for small businesses - in the UK.

Eagle Eye(EYE) has set its sights on the shopping experience. Its AIR technology allows retailers such as Tesco to issue personalised coupons and gift vouchers via SMS and email, and enables customers to redeem those offers in store using their mobile phone. The success of innovations like AIR and the overall mobile commerce ecosystem relies on telecom companies providing fast connections and reliable networks. It’s no surprise then that Vodafone (VOD) has ramped-up its network investment and spent heavily to acquire superfast ‘4G’ wireless spectrum. It has also teamed up with carriers O2 and EE to offer Weve, a messaging, advertising and payment platform.

Ventures such as Weve use consumers' personal and payment data to improve advertisers' targeting and companies' understanding of their customers. But those kinds of sensitive information are catnip for cyber-thieves and fraudsters, which has led to record levels of hacking and online data theft. Fortunately, companies such as cyber-security specialist NCC (NCC) and GB Group (GBG) - which conducts in-depth identity checks in over 30 countries - address that issue.

The m-commerce revolution creates rich opportunities and costly challenges for companies. In our view, mobile-first companies such as Monitise and eServGlobal look to be sound investments.

NOT ON THE HIGH STREET

If m-commerce is set to soar over the next few years, it stands to reason that companies that manufacturer smartphones and tablets and facilitate their use are in for a boom time. Device ownership is surging. There are 34.6m smartphone users in the UK - 66.7 per cent of total mobile phone users and a little over half of the total population. Smartphone users are predicted to grow to 45m by 2018, reflecting about 83 per cent of mobile phone users and over two-thirds of the total population, according to eMarketer.

In terms of tablets, this year eMarketer estimates there are 26.4m tablet users in the UK representing 41 per cent of the total population and over half of internet users. By 2018, the total number will rise to 38.5m, accounting for 57.8 per cent of the entire population and 71.5 per cent of internet users. Moreover, tablets will contribute roughly double the level of retail sales that smartphones will this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of e-commerce sales, despite the wider use of smartphones, and by 2018, tablet-based retail sales will more than double to £20.9bn from £9.3bn.

Smartphone and tablet manufacturers, such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Samsung and Nokia, therefore, have a guaranteed pipeline of future customers, both in the UK and overseas, as mobile device ownership rises around the globe. But other retailers are also getting in on the action - Tesco’s low-cost Hudl tablet uses Google’s Android operating system and has been well received by tecchies. Speciality chemicals and engineering group Alent (ALNT) makes materials vital for smartphones and tablets, so it too is well placed to benefit form mobile commerce.

Money makes the world go around

By Kirsty Green

Payment services is the next area of m-commerce to get radical, as consumers demand ever faster, easier checkout solutions. Among the most successful are Amazon and UK-listed PayPoint. When PayPoint began life 18 years ago, there was no such thing as m-commerce. Today it is a central part of its business. PayPoint was originally an in-store terminal that people could use to top up their gas and electricity meters.

But as shopping has branched away from physical stores and into the mobile world, PayPoint’s services have followed.

PayPoint’s mobile and online division provides services such as paying for parking on a mobile phone and processing card payments for online retailers. The division processed 132 million transactions in the last fiscal year and contributes nearly a fifth of PayPoint’s total transactions and 13 per cent of its net revenue.

The group has also teamed up with delivery company Yodel to launch Collect+, which allows shoppers to buy a product online and have it delivered to a convenient point near their home, such as a local petrol station. Online retailers that are using the service include Amazon, eBay, Asos, New Look, Boden, John Lewis and Very.

Collect+ parcel transactions jumped 76 per cent to 13.6m in the group’s last fiscal year and the venture is now turning a profit. Collect+ has over 5,500 outlets with the long-term aim to get that to over 12,000, which would see the network eclipse the Post Office.

The opportunities that m-commerce presents for a payment processing specialist such as PayPoint are obvious. But chasing those opportunities comes at a price and competition is likely to be fierce. A recent trading update highlighted rising costs in Collect+ and PayPoint has also flagged up that branching into new mobile commerce areas will require investment in development and marketing.

The shares trade on a forward earnings multiple of 19 times, which we believe fairly reflects that balance of opportunity and risk. But the 3.6 per cent dividend yield makes the shares worth holding.

SNAIL MAIL

But until we have the technology to beam people and objects through a Star Trek-like transporter, mobile commerce, however cutting edge, still relies on old-fashioned snail mail to bring the goods to the customer. Online shopping has, therefore, been a boon for logistics companies, such as Royal Mail’s ParcelForce, DPD, UPS, Germany’s DHL and Dutch-based TNT (see below). Not only do these companies deliver the goods, but they are often the conduit through which people return items. Parcel volumes at UK Mail rose 15 per cent in the final quarter of its latest financial year, driven by an increase in home deliveries related to online shopping. Some believe the rise in parcel volumes might level off soon, owing to the increasing popularity of alternative delivery points, such as click and collect, but the goods still have to be transported and global parcel volumes will continue to rise as consumers in emerging economies buy more over their mobiles.

Meanwhile, other innovative delivery methods are being introduced. Amazon is experimenting with collection lockers in London’s underground stations, while eBay has tied up with Argos to use its shops as collection points. This follows the rollout of Asda’s click-and-collect points at six London stations last autumn. "London Underground's click-and-collect revolution is going from strength to strength, attracting some of the most recognisable names in retail. Amazon is a fantastic addition to a cast of top brands who are reaching out to their customers in new ways and enabling TfL to generate vital revenue for improvements to our transport network," said London Mayor Boris Johnson.

As for delivery companies, many are already differentiating themselves by offering specialist services for retailers, including next-day and time-slotted delivery options. Some are better than others: DPD, for example, is miles ahead of ParcelForce in offering such flexibility. It lets customers track their parcel on a map, so they can see exactly where the delivery van is and when it will arrive. It also sends texts to customers on their smartphones offering alternative delivery options.

How parcel transporters are benefiting

By Harriet Russell

For many sectors - gambling, restaurants and the leisure sector - the rise of M-commerce is not a game-changing development. That’s not to deny growing digital sales isn’t helpful to these companies - it is - but the trend is simply a sign of the times. After all, if you have something to sell, the more people can access it via the internet or on their mobile phone, the better.

But one sector which is uniquely affected by the rise of M-commerce is industrial transportation. For starters, Royal Mail (RMG) has cited M-commerce as a main driver of growth, particularly for its parcels division. As far as the postal services are concerned, this is where the future lies as more people shop and order their goods via mobile tablets and phones. Parcel volumes fare better than letter volumes, not to mention margins for parcels are higher. But the problem for Royal Mail is the ability of its competitors to offer specialised services. Companies including Deutsche Post (DPW), UK Mail (UKM), TNT (US: TNTE) and FedEx (US: FDX) will all benefit from the proliferation of M-commerce, but unlike Royal Mail, they aren’t enlisted with the onerous task of delivering the nation’s daily post. Royal Mail is struggling with capacity and rising costs, and naysayers doubt the development of M-commerce has much to offer the flailing business.

But other transportation companies will welcome the chance to offer specialised services to retailers offering their goods via M-commerce platforms. The competition, inevitably, lies in how quickly and accurately such goods can be delivered. For instance, companies like Deutsche Post offer sophisticated tracking services, and can even go as far as delivering goods within a matter of hours depending on the distance.

Those companies who refuse to compete are destined to lose out. Consumers inevitably want goods faster and at their own convenience - that’s arguably the premise of M-commerce itself - so as prices become more competitive, so do services. Transportation companies should welcome such developments. If they are able to adapt their business models accordingly, they are set to win major partnerships with high-profile retailers. It even helps to be ahead of the curve. Smaller player - and IC tip of the year - Wincanton (WIN) struck up with US retailer Williams Sonoma to ship wares to UK-based customers before the home goods specialist set up shop in central London. Currently, the major challenge is fragmentation of services and a lack of transparency with customers. As consolidation improves, and the use of M-commerce becomes normalised, the industrial transportation sector could grow significantly.

Gambling: hoping for a surge in mobile users

By Harriet Russell

When speaking to gambling companies, the terms ‘digital’ and even ‘mobile’ are buzzwords for an industry in crisis. Gaming operators have shifted their business models online to avoid the retail squeeze gripping traditional high-street bookies, but even this is under threat. From December, a new remote gaming duty, commonly referred to as Point of Consumtion (PoC), will enforce a 15 per cent charge on profits earned in the UK, regardless of the company’s registered location.

What’s interesting is that it remains unclear what effect this will have on mobile gaming. Long-considered ‘part and parcel’ of businesses’ digital divisions, Ladbrokes (LAD) recently revealed mobile users now exceed traditional desktop users. This is good news, as the regulatory crackdown is undoubtedly harder to enforce on mobile customers. For example, what if the mobile user is playing in the UK, but isn’t a permanent UK resident? Does this count as UK earnings? Alternatively, if a regular mobile player goes abroad and chooses to continue betting abroad (ie, a World Cup punter in Brazil) how does the government treat the tax here?

The long-term future for online and mobile regulation, particularly in the vice industries, is still unclear. But gaming companies should enjoy the surge in mobile users in the meantime. Company boards have answered customer calls for on-the-go gambling and eradicated problem-gamblers’ shame when forced to walk into a betting shop.

SWALLOWING THE BITTER TABLET

Mobile commerce is clearly boosting the tech, logistics, engineering and support services sectors, but for retailers, it is perhaps more of a poisoned chalice. Huge sums of money are being poured into IT projects and logistics, against a backdrop of weak consumer spending. What’s more, all of this spending only serves to make it easier for customers to compare prices and bag bargains. In the past, retailers made it difficult to do so - now there is general acceptance that people will go into stores and scan barcodes.

Nevertheless, it’s a necessary evil that retailers must embrace to survive, if only to attract shoppers and protect their market share. Ms Palmer, of Begbies Traynor, says that the retailers currently doing well tend to be the powerhouses: Next (NXT) and John Lewis, which she calls “star performers”.

“John Lewis has some very good features right across its sites, making m-commerce a good shopping experience. They are ahead of the game in terms of how that interactive shopping experience can be made easier and more fun for shoppers. Next is successful too and Amazon does it extremely well. Conversely, dear old Marks & Spencer is one of the larger retailers that is behind the game. It has had problems with its online platform and that is contributing to the decline in sales and profitability.”

Anecdotally, M&S does badly in terms of conversion rates. It is thought that 16 per cent of mobile website visitors intend to purchase, which means they have put something in their shopping baskets, but only 9 per cent of them follow through with a purchase. That means M&S is losing about 45 per cent of possible sales. That speaks to the website not being easy to use. Compare that with Boots where 16 per cent of mobile shoppers intend to buy and the majority follow through with the purchase.

“M&S has been late to the party and has got to do better,” says Ms Palmer, “That said, it is addressing the problem and arguably, having started from such a low base the only way is up. It has an awful lot in its favour, namely a trusted brand with a good returns policy.”

Argos is one of the bigger success stories of m-commerce, transforming itself from a catalogue business to a truly online player pretty painlessly. “Ten years ago I would have said Argos might have had challenges making the move from catalogue to digital,” says Ms Palmer. “But it woke up to the fact the marketplace was changing and looked at bricks and mortar much more in terms of cutting space and using shops as a showroom. I’m impressed how well and how seamlessly it has made the move,” she says. Indeed, parent company Home Retail (HOME) has digitally revamped the stores, complete with tablets for browsing digital catalogues and free Wi-Fi for smartphones. It also operates an extensive delivery network. Other retailers that are doing well in the m-commerce space include wine merchant Majestic (MJW), which is personalising customer service, and Dunelm (DNLM), which operates a great, user-friendly mobile site.

But there are still a number of retailers that haven't embraced mobile commerce and who are not getting the basics right. “With more and more traffic going through mobile devices, if you don’t have a mobile-optimised site, customers will lose patience with you,” says Mr Stevenson, of Peel Hunt. “Even a lot of the big quoted names are just not getting their act together.”

MOBILE DATA GOLDMINE

But m-commerce is not all bad for retailers. Consider this: it has unearthed a goldmine of data that has hitherto been out of reach. M-commerce means retailers can now track customers, see where and when they purchas and from which device. That gives them a so-called ‘single customer view’, a complete picture of the customer, allowing them to target each individual with personalised offers at a time of the day when the user might be browsing. This is something retailers are already doing, and those that haven’t are cottoning on - Majestic recently announced it was spending money on IT in order to personalise its service, as customers expect Majestic to know who they are and what kinds of wines they like to buy. Debenhams (DEB) now has single view of customers, as has Moss Bros (MOSB), where the till system knows exactly where you have shopped and what you have bought.

“M-commerce provides a huge amount of data untapped by retailers,” says Ms Palmer. “It offers a good way to understand your customer base as it shows where people go, where they shop and what they do. You can track them too. I read research that said Tesco could predict when a divorce was pending in a household six months in advance through changing shopping habits through its ClubCard alone. Building up information and using various platforms to advertise and push products makes it easy for customers to follow through with purchase.”

UK retail m-commerce sales, by device, 2012-18*, £bn
2012201320142015201620172018
Smartphone£2.04£3.25£4.65£5.67£6.40£6.88£7.84
% change 123.10%59.40%43.20%21.90%12.90%7.50%14.00%
% of retail mcommerce sales53.00%38.00%33.00%31.00%29.00%27.00%27.00%
Tablet£1.72£5.17£9.28£12.44£15.47£18.39£20.96
% change 356.00%201.60%79.30%34.10%24.40%18.90%14.00%
% of retail mcommerce sales44.60%60.50%65.80%68.00%70.10%72.20%72.20%
Other mobile devices£0.09£0.13£0.17£0.18£0.20£0.20£0.23
% change 71.80%38.90%31.90%8.10%8.60%2.60%14.00%
% of retail mcommerce sales2.40%1.50%1.20%1.00%0.90%0.80%0.80%
Total£3.85£8.55£14.10£18.29£22.07£25.47£29.04
% change 186.30%122.30%64.80%29.70%20.60%15.40%14.00%
*£bns, % change and % of retail mcommerce sales.
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via mobile devices, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event ticket sales.
Extended Note: Smartphones are any voice handset with an advanced operating system (eg, Android, BlackBerry, iOS, Windows Mobile, etc) and features/capabilities that resemble a PC. Tablets defined as touchscreen devices with a color display ranging 5-14 inches, a Wi-Fi connection or mobile data plan and an advanced operating system such as Android, BlackBerry, iOS or Windows. Although some have detachable keyboards, touch is the primary interface. Excludes devices with a cellular voice connection. Examples include Amazon Kindle Fire, Apple iPad, Google Nexus 7 or 10, Microsoft Surface and Samsung Galaxy Tab.
Source: eMarketer, June 2014

THE SUPERMARKET CONUNDRUM

For supermarkets, m-commerce is perhaps less of an opportunity. Top of the list of what consumers buy online is books, followed by music and white goods. Down at the bottom of the list is food. Yet, supermarkets have still had to pile investment into e-commerce and m-commerce, and for seemingly little return. Sales and profit at the big four continue to fall. Professor Chris Edger, a retail expert at Birmingham City University, points out that by contrast, Aldi and Lidl, whose operating models hark back to the 1970s, are attracting customers in spite of lacking any sort of digital platform.

“The reasons why people shop over the internet are convenience, accessibility, affordability, immediacy and value. Aldi and Lidl tick a lot of those boxes already, but in the end, value is trumping everything, at least in food. The price differential is huge. Everyone thought it was all about multi-channel convenience, but actually in food retail, is it really?”

However, Prof Edger says despite the cost and comparably little return, adjusting to mobile commerce is necessary even for food retailers. For supermarkets, it’s well-known that the internet is not particularly profitable. Instead, the rationale for pursuing e-commerce and mobile commerce so vigorously is that people who shop with a supermarket on the mobile platform are more likely to be regular, committed customers and tend to spend more overall. It also offers Tesco and Sainsbury’s the chance to cross-sell other goods, such as banking and insurance, and target with specific promotions.

DEVELOPING ECONOMIES PAVING THE WAY

The West might be years ahead economically compared with many nations in the developing world. But when it comes to mobile commerce, these emerging markets are far superior - and that’s a trend retailers and other global players affected by mobile commerce would do well to bear in mind. With broadband infrastructure absent in many emerging markets, it’s perhaps no surprise that consumers there are much more attached to their mobile devices, so there is much greater market penetration using smartphones. And, in the same way that developing economies have bypassed banks altogether and moved straight to mobile banking, so they’ve skipped ahead in terms of retail. This is particularly true of Asia, notably South Korea, where a John Lewis-like company called GMarket is making huge inroads. It has gone so far as to allow shoppers to use their smartphones as scanners while walking around their shops to make purchases. If you see a piece of clothing you like in a GMarket advert, you can scan it and buy it then and there. This is pretty sophisticated stuff which could threaten big global players in the UK, and even the likes of Amazon.

“That global penetration of some of these jazzy online international players can’t be underestimated by some of our biggest retailers,” says Ms Palmer. “People are used to shopping globally and the UK powerhouses can’t rest on their laurels. It is a trend worth watching.”

It certainly is. As consumers become more open-minded about how they do their shopping and where they buy from, so the country barriers start to fall away. Mobile commerce coupled with speedy parcel delivery, tracking options and multi-national payment systems make it even easier to order.

“I bought squash racquets recently,” says Ms Palmer. “The model I wanted was in Malaysia and the exchange rate was such that the racquets came to £71 before postage, and would only take four days to deliver. The sports retailer was not just good at being a service provider, but the minute I was looking at the racquet it had linked it to my Facebook page through my phone. We will see a much greater threat from global players looking to attack Western markets directly, thanks to m-commerce.”

But if overseas players might soon start making inroads into the UK market with their high-tech mobile capabilities, so UK players stand a chance to benefit from the explosion of mobile commerce in emerging markets. China and India are other interesting case studies. India has completely leaped the physical rollout of broadband, with many consumers heading directly to mobile. So there has been a massive explosion in mobile gadgets and smartphones. However, the size of e-commerce on the subcontinent is relatively small, a couple of billion US dollars. But this is expected to grow to $18bn by 2017 and $40bn by 2020. There are currently 40m smartphone users in India, but that’s expected to reach 450m by 2020, according to data from Peel Hunt. Similarly, 3G and 4G users should balloon from 70m in 2012 to 410m in 2020. It’s a massive market offering huge potential for mobile-savvy UK retailers.

Mobile commerce is without doubt here to stay and is having a profound effect on the way we live our lives. As increasing numbers of people become tablet and smartphone owners, thanks in part to the declining cost of these goods, retailers who adapt will win out and companies that facilitate mobile commerce - IT, support services, manufacturers, logistics - and play their cards right, stand to benefit from this global mobile boom. For retailers, the journey to m-commerce will be costly but vital, and if executed correctly, opens up huge lucrative opportunities both at home and overseas. Mobile is already part and parcel of shopping - we just haven’t realised it yet.