News that the latest YouGov poll had given the yes campaign in Scotland's independence referendum a narrow two point lead - the first lead for yes supporters since the campaign began - has hit shares in Scottish companies. Scottish-related financial stocks led the way, with shares in RBS (RBS) and Standard Life (SL.) both having slipped 3 per cent since the poll. Meanwhile, Scottish-registered Lloyds (LLOY) saw its shares fall 2 per cent on Monday.
The pressure on the financials significantly reflects uncertainty about Scotland's ability to retain sterling - the three main UK political parties have said that Scotland will be unable to keep the pound in the event of a yes vote. That, says IG Group's chief market strategist Brenda Kelly "could trigger bank runs as savers attempt to protect their deposits". She adds that banks based in Scotland are "widely expected to move south", and that the resulting outflow of capital would "do no good" to the Scottish economy.
Customers of companies such as Standard Life, meanwhile, are growing increasingly concerned about the implications for their pensions and savings products should independence become a reality. After all, some £750bn of assets are managed in Scotland. On Wednesday Standard Life told employees that it was preparing contingency plans which could lead to it moving assets south of the border. Tom McPhail, head of pensions research at Hargreaves Lansdown, reckons that "a general increase in the cost of all financial products and services" is likely should financial companies find themselves having to deal with customers in two different jurisdictions.
It's not just the financial companies that are under pressure, either. Shares in Scottish power company SSE (SSE) have fallen over 3 per cent since the poll, for example. Energy companies will be affected should the UK's currently integrated energy market break apart, as well as by a lack of clarity over subsidies for expensive alternative energy schemes. Defence-related companies are seeing share price pressure, too, with those in Babcock (BAB), for example, having fallen 4 per cent since the poll appeared. That's down to the relatively high concentration of defence infrastructure in Scotland: shipbuilding facilities as well as naval and RAF bases. "The markets are certainly beginning to price in what was deemed unthinkable," observes Ms Kelly.
