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Next week's economics: 29 Sep - 3 Oct

Next week's economics: 29 Sep - 3 Oct
September 25, 2014
Next week's economics: 29 Sep - 3 Oct

That something is necessary should be evident in next week's numbers. Purchasing managers' surveys should confirm that both manufacturing and services are growing only very modestly - which will be consistent with official figures which are likely to show that retail sales volumes rose by less than 1 per cent in the 12 months to August. Partly because of this - but also because of falling oil prices - inflation is very low. Tuesday's flash estimate could show that it was around 0.4 per cent in September; earlier data show that Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece are already seeing prices fall year on year.

All this means that with banks having not taken up the ECB's offer of cheap funds, the ECB's press conference on Thursday will be even more important. ECB president Mario Draghi will tell us the type and quantity of asset-backed securities he plans to buy. Unless he promises to buy plenty, and poor quality ones, there will be yet more speculation that he will have to announce even more dramatic moves later.

UK figures will show that the eurozone's malaise is hitting us. Purchasing managers could report another slowdown in manufacturing activity - to a 15-month low - partly due to weak exports. And partly because of this, the ONS could report on Tuesday that the UK's current account deficit rose in the second quarter, to around 5 per cent of GDP.

We'll also find out on Tuesday whether the eurozone's woes are depressing UK investment, with the release of the expenditure breakdown of GDP. This will show that consumer spending added to GDP and net exports subtracted from it. Unless capital spending shows a good rise, economists will worry that our expansion is an unbalanced one, led by consumers and the housing market.

Monday's lending figures might add to these concerns. They could show rises in consumer credit and mortgage approvals, but whether they will show a pick up in business lending is less clear. The latter has been choppy lately. Unless it picks up, official forecasts for big rises in capital spending will come into question.

Look out too for the ONS's figures on financial balances on Tuesday. These will show that the counterpart to big government borrowing is net saving by foreigners (that is, the current account deficit) and by UK companies, because retained profits exceed capital spending.

Meanwhile, US figures should show a more comfortable picture. The ISM should report on Wednesday that manufacturing is growing nicely, and Friday's figures should show a good rise in non-farm jobs (of around 200,000) and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6 per cent, its lowest since July 2008.