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Questioning secular stagnation

Questioning secular stagnation
October 15, 2014
Questioning secular stagnation

If they're right, it's good news for savers and investors. Secular stagnation doesn't just imply negative real returns on cash and higher-quality bonds, but also perhaps low returns on equities to the extent that it means weak economic growth.

But are they right? The question hinges upon another question: why are real long-term interest rates so low? Yields on 10-year index-linked gilts are now minus 0.6 per cent, compared with an average of 3.7 per cent between 1985 and 1997.

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