Join our community of smart investors

Coppock 2014 roundup

Another quiet month means a good opportunity to take stock of Coppock’s signals
December 4, 2014

Such was the dearth of signals from the Coppock system in November that at one point I was concerned that I may have broken my spreadsheet. I have checked and in fact it is working fine, but it means there is very little to report – a journalist’s worst nightmare.

Against that backdrop I felt that, before I turn to the two signals this month, it would be useful to round up exactly what the Coppock system is saying about the various equity markets we cover. As you can see from the accompanying table, there are still two distinct camps – developed markets, which Coppock is suggesting we sell, and emerging markets, which the system largely suggests we buy.

Of course, since the mid-October scare markets have moved in largely one direction – upwards, and in several cases to hit new record highs. That leaves the system’s entirely ‘bearish’ position (in as much a mechanical system can exhibit sentiment) on US indices, looking rather silly, and likewise Japan’s Topix, which has gained around 17 per cent since the system said sell in January. At least the sell signals given on London’s markets in January predicated a rather uneventful year that has seen the FTSE indices largely flatline, lagging even European bourses which are also all, with barely anexception, flashing ‘sell’.

I will not reiterate at length our view on how we should interpret Coppock sell signals - in one word I would say cautiously. A recent example, Korea’s KOSPI continued to recover despite last month’s sell signal. But, with Coppock readings across in the positive phase across the board bar a handful of markets we could be waiting a long time for the official buys that have proved more reliable. On that note, its worth looking back to the last official buy given by the system in August, China’s B 35 index. Since then it has climbed 10 per cent, and is one of the best performing emerging market indices.

But Coppock isn’t always right with buys, either, as this month’s signals show. The MSCI Latin America index finally gave up on its buy signal after a sharp plunge over the last 3 months, giving up the 10 per cent you’d have made if you’d have followed that signal in April and more. And it was the opposite case with the Swiss SMI Index, which gave up on its fifteen month old sell signal after decent economic news from German lifted it to a six year high. So all in all, a mixed record for the system this

November Coppock Signals

BuysSells
NoneNone
Cancelled SellsCancelled Buys
Swizterland SMIMSCI EM Latin America

Latest Coppock readings

North AmericaAugSepOctNovLatest signalLatest signal (date)
SPX42.0639.3438.1337.17SELLMar-14
DJINDUS27.7225.624.9724.7SELLMar-14
NASDAQ 10060.2458.5357.5657.01SELLSep-14
NASDAQ COMP56.5452.6350.0247.72SELLApr-14
S&P/TSX36.5436.7335.3333.61SELLOct-14
Asia Pacific, Africa
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX-2.92.2210.0516.99BUYJun-14
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX16.7714.5713.1910.44SELLMay-14
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX-11.55-7.28-4.83-0.86BUYAug-14
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX11.1410.261111.1CANCEL SELLOct-14
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX5.996.124.983.94SELLOct-14
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX8.00711.93118.19523.412CANCEL SELLJun-14
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX2.463.065.026.85CANCEL SELLJul-14
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX26.6925.2124.123.29SELLSep-14
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX34.3330.127.1825.83SELLJan-14
ASX 2002117.41613SELLSep-14
NZ 5021.4619.5619.4219.07SELLSep-13
JSE TOP 4047.244.1341.1936.84SELLSep-14
SENSEX50.2554.6361.8667.92CANCEL SELLMar-14
South America
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX2.936.8110.412.36BUYMay-14
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND1.835.729.1911.49BUYMar-14
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX-8.92-6.98-4.023-4.261CANCEL BUY*Nov-14
Europe/UK
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX29.3127.6225.4624.09SELLJun-14
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX62.2751.7237.0723.85SELLJun-14
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX6.710.67-5.06-9.04SELLDec-13
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX38.8237.5835.7334.4SELLSep-14
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX40.435.8931.0728.14SELLJun-14
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX35.3632.64829.15426.398SELLJun-14
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX29.0825.5721.3518.12SELLJun-14
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX12.539.497.386.28SELLDec-13
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX28.9422.8118.2914.6SELLDec-13
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX15.2111.79.27.65SELLDec-13
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX55.552.2246.8841.28SELLJul-14
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX56.4253.4949.945.25SELLSep-14
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX42.1337.9232.6730.29SELLApr-14
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX30.9929.2228.0127.33SELLJun-14
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND50.7649.7646.0540.01SELLSep-14
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX29.8322.0811.130.54SELLJun-14
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX0.910.151.993.18CANCEL SELLOct-14
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX21.7120.6620.2620.95CANCEL SELL*Nov-14

*New signals