Such was the dearth of signals from the Coppock system in November that at one point I was concerned that I may have broken my spreadsheet. I have checked and in fact it is working fine, but it means there is very little to report – a journalist’s worst nightmare.
Against that backdrop I felt that, before I turn to the two signals this month, it would be useful to round up exactly what the Coppock system is saying about the various equity markets we cover. As you can see from the accompanying table, there are still two distinct camps – developed markets, which Coppock is suggesting we sell, and emerging markets, which the system largely suggests we buy.
Of course, since the mid-October scare markets have moved in largely one direction – upwards, and in several cases to hit new record highs. That leaves the system’s entirely ‘bearish’ position (in as much a mechanical system can exhibit sentiment) on US indices, looking rather silly, and likewise Japan’s Topix, which has gained around 17 per cent since the system said sell in January. At least the sell signals given on London’s markets in January predicated a rather uneventful year that has seen the FTSE indices largely flatline, lagging even European bourses which are also all, with barely anexception, flashing ‘sell’.
I will not reiterate at length our view on how we should interpret Coppock sell signals - in one word I would say cautiously. A recent example, Korea’s KOSPI continued to recover despite last month’s sell signal. But, with Coppock readings across in the positive phase across the board bar a handful of markets we could be waiting a long time for the official buys that have proved more reliable. On that note, its worth looking back to the last official buy given by the system in August, China’s B 35 index. Since then it has climbed 10 per cent, and is one of the best performing emerging market indices.
But Coppock isn’t always right with buys, either, as this month’s signals show. The MSCI Latin America index finally gave up on its buy signal after a sharp plunge over the last 3 months, giving up the 10 per cent you’d have made if you’d have followed that signal in April and more. And it was the opposite case with the Swiss SMI Index, which gave up on its fifteen month old sell signal after decent economic news from German lifted it to a six year high. So all in all, a mixed record for the system this
November Coppock Signals
Buys | Sells |
None | None |
Cancelled Sells | Cancelled Buys |
Swizterland SMI | MSCI EM Latin America |
Latest Coppock readings
North America | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
SPX | 42.06 | 39.34 | 38.13 | 37.17 | SELL | Mar-14 |
DJINDUS | 27.72 | 25.6 | 24.97 | 24.7 | SELL | Mar-14 |
NASDAQ 100 | 60.24 | 58.53 | 57.56 | 57.01 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NASDAQ COMP | 56.54 | 52.63 | 50.02 | 47.72 | SELL | Apr-14 |
S&P/TSX | 36.54 | 36.73 | 35.33 | 33.61 | SELL | Oct-14 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | -2.9 | 2.22 | 10.05 | 16.99 | BUY | Jun-14 |
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | 16.77 | 14.57 | 13.19 | 10.44 | SELL | May-14 |
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | -11.55 | -7.28 | -4.83 | -0.86 | BUY | Aug-14 |
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 11.14 | 10.26 | 11 | 11.1 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 5.99 | 6.12 | 4.98 | 3.94 | SELL | Oct-14 |
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 8.007 | 11.931 | 18.195 | 23.412 | CANCEL SELL | Jun-14 |
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 2.46 | 3.06 | 5.02 | 6.85 | CANCEL SELL | Jul-14 |
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 26.69 | 25.21 | 24.1 | 23.29 | SELL | Sep-14 |
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 34.33 | 30.1 | 27.18 | 25.83 | SELL | Jan-14 |
ASX 200 | 21 | 17.4 | 16 | 13 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NZ 50 | 21.46 | 19.56 | 19.42 | 19.07 | SELL | Sep-13 |
JSE TOP 40 | 47.2 | 44.13 | 41.19 | 36.84 | SELL | Sep-14 |
SENSEX | 50.25 | 54.63 | 61.86 | 67.92 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-14 |
South America | ||||||
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 2.93 | 6.81 | 10.4 | 12.36 | BUY | May-14 |
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 1.83 | 5.72 | 9.19 | 11.49 | BUY | Mar-14 |
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -8.92 | -6.98 | -4.023 | -4.261 | CANCEL BUY* | Nov-14 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 29.31 | 27.62 | 25.46 | 24.09 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 62.27 | 51.72 | 37.07 | 23.85 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 6.71 | 0.67 | -5.06 | -9.04 | SELL | Dec-13 |
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 38.82 | 37.58 | 35.73 | 34.4 | SELL | Sep-14 |
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 40.4 | 35.89 | 31.07 | 28.14 | SELL | Jun-14 |
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 35.36 | 32.648 | 29.154 | 26.398 | SELL | Jun-14 |
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 29.08 | 25.57 | 21.35 | 18.12 | SELL | Jun-14 |
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 12.53 | 9.49 | 7.38 | 6.28 | SELL | Dec-13 |
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 28.94 | 22.81 | 18.29 | 14.6 | SELL | Dec-13 |
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 15.21 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 7.65 | SELL | Dec-13 |
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 55.5 | 52.22 | 46.88 | 41.28 | SELL | Jul-14 |
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 56.42 | 53.49 | 49.9 | 45.25 | SELL | Sep-14 |
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 42.13 | 37.92 | 32.67 | 30.29 | SELL | Apr-14 |
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 30.99 | 29.22 | 28.01 | 27.33 | SELL | Jun-14 |
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 50.76 | 49.76 | 46.05 | 40.01 | SELL | Sep-14 |
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | 29.83 | 22.08 | 11.13 | 0.54 | SELL | Jun-14 |
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 0.91 | 0.15 | 1.99 | 3.18 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 21.71 | 20.66 | 20.26 | 20.95 | CANCEL SELL* | Nov-14 |
*New signals