Official figures showed that manufacturing production fell 0.7 per cent in October, leaving output 0.3 per cent below the third quarter's level. Although monthly figures are volatile, and many economists believe output bounced back in November, the numbers point to much slower growth than earlier this year. "The pace of expansion has moved sharply lower," says Chris Williamson at Markit.
This draws attention the fact that the economy faces several big obstacles to growth.
One is poor export performance. Other official figures this week show that non-oil export volumes have fallen in the past 12 months. This isn't merely because of the weak euro area. Exports to non-EU countries have also fallen, with exports to the US dropping almost 10 per cent in value terms, which hints at a wider problem of a lack of competitiveness. This problem won't disappear quickly; purchasing managers report that export orders fell last month.
Secondly, fiscal policy will tighten next year, having loosened this. The OBR expects the cyclically adjusted primary deficit - a measure of fiscal policy - to fall by 0.8 per cent of GDP in 2015-16, having increased this year.
Thirdly, the fact that a general election is only five months away could increase uncertainty about both longer-term fiscal policy and the UK's membership of the European Union. Research by Stanford University's Nick Bloom has found that policy uncertainty often reduces capital spending. This is consistent with official figures showing that business investment fell in the third quarter, even though the OBR and Bank of England both expect it to be the fastest-growing component of spending this year and next.
But there are some offsetting positives. The fall in oil prices is, in effect, a tax cut for both households and businesses: each $10pb fall in the oil price, if sustained for a year, would save the UK £3.5bn or 0.2 per cent of GDP. And economists expect rising real wages next year to boost consumer spending. "The economy should remain solid," says Investec's Philip Shaw, who expects GDP to grow 3 per cent in 2015, the same rate as this year.
There are, though, risks to this. Mr Williamson says: "There is no guarantee that the UK's robust economic performance will continue into the new year."
