Certainly, when we have historically talked about oil price shocks it has meant a sharply rising price, usually the consequence of some form of major supply disruption. Such is the ubiquitous use of oil that a rising price can quickly put the brakes on economic growth, and with it any upward market momentum. It is so valuable that for many nations it is the foundation of their economies.
Yet as Russia is demonstrating - and, on the other side of the Atlantic, Venezuela - it is a very unstable foundation indeed, hence why a sharp fall in its price can be as destabilising as a sharp rise. Certainly while a serious financial crisis in Russia should be containable in itself, there's no guessing what the political fallout could be and whether a more widespread crisis lies in wait - and investors aren't well known for their love of such uncertainty.
The crisis that has come to a head in Russia has, in fact, been brewing all year, and is just one of several worries that investors have had to contend with - slowing global growth chief amongst them, and for the UK an existential threat in the form of the Scottish independence referendum. Unsurprisingly, seeking such certainty has been one of the big features of investing in 2014, with confusing zero-interest policies sending investors scurrying for familiar boltholes. So large-caps have, in the main, outperformed smaller companies. Bonds have confounded expectations by refusing to collapse. Gold has, latterly, uncharacteristically risen alongside the dollar.
That's why I believe seeking certainty is likely to remain high on most agendas in the year ahead. While it is certainly easy enough to make the case that key equity markets are by no means overvalued on the basis of their prima facie fundamentals, investors do still seem to be undervaluing the risks that could lie in wait. That could be one explanation for sudden surges in volatility and market-specific sell-offs we have seen this year in a seemingly benign environment in which volatility has steadily trended downwards. And because many of the problems that have troubled the world in 2014 haven't gone away - a deflationary threat in Europe, slowing growth in China and political instability everywhere - there will be more testing moments like these.
To end on a more optimistic note, there will of course be bright spots - except that finding them requires more legwork - and it would be sensible to build in a comfortable margin of safety as you navigate the year ahead. I hope this year's huge double issue proves a useful guide. And finally, we hope you have a fantastic Christmas.
