It's no secret that the tobacco industry is struggling to grow in western, developed markets. But news that plain packaging laws will be put before MPs in Westminster - ahead of schedule and the upcoming general election - has dealt a further blow to global cigarette giants. Wales has already voted to accept any Westminster legislation on the matter, while Scotland and Northern Ireland are set to vote on whether to back the final decision. If approved by Westminster before May, a new law could be in place by 2016.
Plain packaging means cigarettes will be sold in boxes depicting graphic warnings, as opposed to the usual consumer-friendly branding. Australia is the only country to have introduced similar laws (in December 2012) and since then Australian smoking rates are said to have fallen at their fastest rate in more than two decades.
However, some tobacco companies have disputed this. This week, The Tobacco Manufacturers Association argued the vote on plain packaging in the UK was based on "dogma", rather than evidence. While the future effect of new laws in the UK is a guessing game, a review last year by Sir Cyril Chantler concluded it was "very likely" their introduction would lead to "a modest but important reduction" in smoking rates. However, pro-smoking lobbyists argue that children do not start smoking because of packaging. Instead, these groups believe the growing social consciousness regarding health and fitness has driven smoking rates down in the West.
London's two listed tobacco companies, Imperial Tobacco (IMT) and British American Tobacco (BATS), have spoken out against the new laws. The Financial Times reported that Imperial bosses were "surprised and disappointed" by the vote. The company also called plain packaging initiatives in Australia a "failed experiment", arguing that the laws had not achieved their stated objectives.
Plain packaging regulations are also being considered in Ireland and France. The latter decided last September to move ahead with introducing similar rules. But the decision in the UK comes after much flip-flopping by the British government. MPs originally abandoned the idea in 2013 before reviving the proposals last year.
But tobacco companies have warned they would sue if plain packaging was introduced. Last year Philip Morris International (PMI), which makes Marlboro cigarettes, led legal action against the Australian government. It said it was "seeking fair compensation for the value of its property" and "protecting its rights in the court".
