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Opinion

Next week's economics: 9-13 March

Next week's economics: 9-13 March
March 4, 2015
Next week's economics: 9-13 March

In the eurozone, official figures could show a small rise in industrial production in January, probably led by Germany. Although the rise will be small, it will confirm that the region is pulling out of last autumn's soft spot; output could be a respectable 0.5 per cent up in the last three months compared with the previous three.

China might also show a pick-up in growth, in Tuesday's official figures. Although some economists suspect such data overstate the health of the economy, they should be consistent with recent purchasing managers' surveys.

And in the US, we should see a bounce in retail sales after a weather-related dip in January. Note, though, that these numbers are in nominal terms so the headline figures are depressed by lower petrol prices. Economists suspect that the underlying real trend is healthy.

The UK should share in this growth. Wednesday's official figures should show that manufacturing output rose slightly in January, and is around 0.6 per cent higher in the last three months compared with the previous three. And the NIESR should estimate the same day that real GDP grew by around 0.6 per cent in the three months to February.

There are, however, a couple of wrinkles to watch for. One is that industrial production might be weaker than manufacturing, as lower oil prices reduce North Sea output. This should be only a temporary problem, because low prices should eventually stimulate greater demand for manufacturing products, not least by encouraging capital spending, and so more than offset weaker oil output.

Secondly, the British Retail Consortium might report slower retail sales growth in February. This will be partly because the numbers are in nominal terms and shop prices are falling. But it will also be payback for a strong winter of sales. Neither is a problem.

On Thursday, the RICS might report that house price inflation has now stopped, and that prices are falling in London. This would be a cause for concern if it was a sign of pessimism about the future. But it's probably not. Instead, it's more likely just elementary economics; higher prices mean lower demand. It's not clear, though, that this is the start of a trend; low mortgage rates and rising real wages might get prices rising again.