We do not, though, need the sun - or lack of it for a few minutes - to warn us that the global economy does in fact face a difficult path in the months ahead. Much effort is currently being employed in second guessing what the Federal Reserve plans for US interest rates - and what the likely outcome will be when they are finally lifted from the near zero rate at which they've languished for over six years. Observers had been watching carefully to see any hawkish adjustment in language in the Fed's statement on Wednesday: "a considerable time" before rates will rise has already given way to a "patient" view in recent months; this patience has fallen by the wayside, too, which observers suggest means a rise is now nailed on for the summer.
That could have major repercussions for stock markets, many complain, given the likely link that exists between loose monetary policy and the skyward rise in asset prices. Among those urging the Fed to hold fire is veteran hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. He's expressed concern that the anticipated rise in interest rates could prompt a market sell-off similar to that seen in March 1937, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by a third as the Federal Reserve started to tighten monetary policy loosened after the Great Depression.
There are those, however, who suggest that such comparisons with today are as valid as believing that solar alignment can tell us in which direction stock markets are likely to be heading. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that those keen on an imminent rate rise have overestimated the strength of the economic recovery and just how broadly based it really is. Certainly recent economic data from the US has been poor, while even the more hawkish members of the UK's monetary policy committee have rejoined the dovish consensus in recent votes, on signs of a cooling economy.
And as the chancellor noted in this week's Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility has revised down its figures for global growth, mirroring recent downgrades from the IMF and World Bank. This is despite the continuing plunge in the oil price - suggesting the much-vaunted benefits of lower oil prices have been outweighed by the geopolitical and economic chaos and uncertainty that accompany them. More troubling still is the view of the Bank of International Settlements, which believes the huge debts held by the oil industry could have major knock-on effects if the low oil price persists. Investors should be wary of such spreading darkness.
