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Opinion

Next week's economics: April 6-10

Next week's economics: April 6-10
April 1, 2015
Next week's economics: April 6-10

A purchasing managers' survey on Tuesday 7 April is expected to confirm that growth in the euro area services sector is at a 46-month high. In itself, this is not impressive given how weak growth has been recently. Other figures, however, might also point to strong growth.

In Germany, industrial production is expected to post a small rise in February. Because this follows two months of good growth, it would imply that output in January and February together is around 1.3 per cent up on Q4's level.

We could see a similar picture in France, where industrial output in January and February together could also be 1.3 per cent above Q4's level.

It's not just industry that's reviving, though. Although Wednesday's official figures might show that retail sales volumes in the euro area fell in February, this will follow a strong rise in January. Taking the two months together, sales might be more than one per cent up from Q4.

All this points to the region being on course for strong growth in the first quarter.

UK figures, however, might be less impressive. On Friday, we should see a rise in manufacturing output. But this would only reverse January's surprise fall - a fall that was inconsistent with reports from both the CBI and purchasing managers. Overall, output is likely to be only slightly up from Q4.

The services sector should, however, be rather stronger, as Tuesday's purchasing managers survey should report. Thanks to this, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is expected to say on Friday that real GDP grew by around 0.6 per cent in the first quarter - in line with recent months’ growth.

We could also see signs of a slowdown in the housing market, with the RICS reporting on Friday that house price inflation has slowed down, with prices falling in London. This would be a concern if it were a sign of reduced confidence about future incomes. More likely, though, it will tell us only that prices are too high and mortgage finance hard to get. This should be the message of Wednesday's report on housing equity withdrawal from the Bank of England. It could show that people are putting £11bn more into house buying than they are borrowing in mortgages.