First of all, the value of the US dollar is key. It all kicked off in July last year when the greenback started appreciating against all currencies. Since then, on a trade weighted basis, we saw the fastest appreciation of the US unit in thirty years. Over the last nine months the Swiss franc got off relatively unscathed, down just 8 per cent. In ascending order (of losses) we have sterling at 14 per cent, the Australian dollar down 17, the euro down 20 and Scandinavians losing 27 per cent of their value; some emerging market currencies fared a lot worse. Will this frenzied run continue? We feel it has probably run its course against the majors and an uneasy truce will dominate the FX market again this year as has been the case since 2009.
US Dollar Index