Granted, purchasing managers' surveys will suggest that growth slowed slightly in April - but this might be no more than a slight breather in a decent upturn.
However, this is not yet helping the UK much. Figures on Friday could show that the trade deficit in the first quarter was about as big as it was in the fourth quarter. This might be a sign that the UK lacks the competitiveness or supply potential to step up exports. If so, this would be worrying.
For now, though, domestically-generated growth seems strong; purchasing managers should report good growth in the services sector in April.
We could also see signs that house price inflation, which had cooled over the winter, is now picking up: both Lloyds Banking and the RICS could report an upturn in price growth. If this were a sign of confidence about future incomes, it wouldn't be so bad. But RICS is likely to say instead that it is due to a lack of supply.
In the US, the most closely watched news will be Friday's employment report. It is likely to show jobs growth of around 250,000 and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4 per cent, consistent with steady economic growth.
However, Wednesday's figures will also be important, and underrated. These could show that labour productivity in the non-farm business sector fell in the first quarter. This should not be ignored as the effect of temporarily weak GDP growth. Instead, there has been, as in the UK, a slowdown in trend productivity; in the last five years output per hour has risen 0.7 per cent per year compared with 2.2 per cent in the 20 years to the end of 2007. This is consistent with secular stagnationists fears that trend GDP growth has declined. Whether this is a permanent or temporary feature, or due to the financial crisis or to deeper factors, is debatable. What's not debatable is that it matters a lot.
