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Next week's economics: May 11 - 15

Next week's economics: May 11 - 15
May 6, 2015
Next week's economics: May 11 - 15

In the US, retail sales and industrial production should post small rises for April, and the Empire State survey of manufacturers in the New York region should also point to stronger activity. All this would corroborate economists' expectations that the second quarter will see much stronger growth than the first quarter's measly 0.2 per cent annualised rate.

In the UK, the NIESR is expected to say that GDP grew a little in April, while the ONS is likely to report growth in manufacturing output of around 0.4 per cent in March. This would be consistent with Q1's weakness being due in part to a weak January rather than to a big fundamental slowdown.

The British Retail Consortium, however, might report a drop in retail sales in the year to April. This, though, would probably owe more to Easter falling earlier this year than to an underlying fall in demand.

Unemployment figures on Wednesday could show another fall, perhaps to below 1.8m - although this will tell us that labour productivity is continuing to stagnate rather than that the economy is booming.

Also on Wednesday we'll get the Bank of England's latest Inflation Report. It will say that inflation will rise from its current zero rate. But how quickly? Much depends on what happens to wage inflation. Some economists think falling unemployment will push this up while others think low inflation now will reduce inflation expectations and hence future wage growth. The ONS's figures on this could offer something for both sides: regular pay might show signs of edging up, but overall wage growth (including bonuses) might not.

In the rest of the world, figures might be mixed. China's official figures on Monday could show that annual industrial production growth has slowed to 5.5 per cent - its lowest rate since early 2009, when the world was in deep recession. Some economists suspect that this overstates true growth. This could reinforce beliefs that the country is shifting to a permanently slower growth rate.

Eurozone numbers, however, might be better. They might show that real GDP in the region grew by 0.4 per cent in Q1 - outpacing the UK and US even before any effects from quantitative easing.

On Friday, we'll get some important figures for investors from the US Treasury on foreign buying of US equities. These matter because, since the mid-1990s, they have been a decent predictor of returns on global equities. The numbers could show that foreign net selling has stopped. If history is any guide, this points to lower returns in future - but still reasonable ones.