Secondly, while the outcome may eventually have an impact on the wealth of our readership, the contest has been so close that making any post-vote plans would have relied on pure speculation. And as a magazine for serious investors, that’s not something we encourage.
What’s more, the market appears, until this week’s wobble, to be taking election uncertainty in its stride, discounting the prospect of a Tory-led coalition initiating a process that may eventually take the UK out of the EU, or a Labour-led one raising taxes and adopting a generally anti-business stance. This isn’t complacency, but pragmatism: as John Baron puts it on page 30 “the world and its markets will move on”.
One thing markets may be betting on is the prospect of continuing stimulus around the world, even in the US where the largest trade deficit in six years and weak consumption data has prompted some to speculate that rather than raising interest rates the Federal Reserve may even be forced into QE4, adding to ongoing QE programmes in Europe and Japan, and the possibility of stimulus in slowing China.
Arguably, such central bank action has been responsible for much of the economic improvement witnessed in the world’s developed economies – and certainly the feel-good-inducing (for some) rise in asset prices. Although the conservatives may boast of a strong economic record, they can hardly claim credit for this global crutch, or the upswing in the business cycle or dip in inflation that has boosted Britain’s economic revival, or the self help measures that have boosted many of the companies we cover - or even a burgeoning revival in housebuilding, despite which the level of new home construction remains woefully short of demand, a clear failure of government policy.
And while Ed Milliband has pledged, on an eight foot high block of stone, to build a “strong economic foundation”, without any meaningful discussion of how this might be achieved it’s a promise that rings hollow. In a dismal election campaign that has highlighted how poor the choices on offer to the UK electorate are - and how flawed our system is - few parties have been much clearer on the fundamental improvements to, amongst other things, education standards and the development of a stable tax regime that will provide that foundation. Both are vital if our companies are to remain competitive over the longer term and it is only surprising that more companies aren't, like HSBC, threatening to leave these shores.
