Join our community of smart investors
Opinion

Deflation distraction

Deflation distraction
May 22, 2015
Deflation distraction

The near-universal consensus view is that this will prove, unlike the persistent slump in prices that has afflicted Japan, a technically-driven and temporary phenomenon that lasts just one month - negative inflation rather than deflation to be accurate. Indeed, the oil price is already on the way back up.

Nor, as chancellor George Osborne was at pains to quickly point out, is this deflation a consequence of economic weakness, as it has partly been on the continent. The UK economy continues to motor along nicely and consumers are, thanks partly to falling prices and also rising wages, feeling flusher than they have in a while - and, as it happens, splashing out on new motors like there's no tomorrow (me among them). As economists point out, they would not be doing this if they expected things to be significantly cheaper in the months ahead, as they would be if the CPI figure marked the start of a deflationary spiral.

So far so good, then, but is this brush with deflation the cause for celebration that Mr Osborne suggests? If we look back to its underlying causes, perhaps not. The oil price weakness reflects not just a supply glut, but a dearth of economic growth around the world, most troublingly in China, which is slowing much more rapidly than had been expected. Abenomics is struggling to reignite growth in Japan, too, an unwelcome portent for Europe's central bankers who this week accelerated bond purchases in an attempt to keep its economic revival going. Business investment remains weak across the board, too - a sign that managers are holding back on capital spending for fear that it will not generate adequate returns.

This view of 'secular stagnation' is not universally accepted. But the flirtation with deflation has been enough to further push out expectations of an interest rate rise. That means continuing pain for savers, and is likely to prolong the rush into other income-producing assets, pushing their prices ever skyward. In a far from deflationary asset price environment, and with 'Goldilocks' demand inflation (neither too hot nor too cold) likely to be the norm in the years ahead, shares arguably remain the place to be - especially given fears over the sustainability of bond prices. But against a backdrop of weak growth, picking the right ones remains as important as ever.