Investors in our long-standing buy tip Ted Baker (TED) will have been encouraged by a very strong trading update for the 18-week period between 1 February and 6 June this year. Group revenue was up 24 per cent year on year, with online sales a particular highlight, up 47 per cent in the period. The wholesale trading division also performed very well, as changing buying patterns in the UK and North America contributed to a 38 per cent constant-currency increase in sales.
The Ted Baker brand continues to expand internationally, with concessions opening in France, Germany, the Netherlands, China and Japan in the period. The group also launched its first street level store in Hong Kong, and a premium range in Spitalfields, London. However, the total shop floor space increase was just 6.6 per cent, little more than a third of the 19 per cent retail sales growth.
Crucially, none of the revenue increases appear to have compromised gross margins, which were broadly in line with last year's levels.
Peel Hunt says...
Buy. These like-for-like sales figures, coupled with the uptick in wholesale orders, justify a 3 per cent forecast upgrade. Full-year adjusted pre-tax profit should hit £59.7m, up from £49.5m in the 12 months to January 2015, and we are forecasting EPS growth of 17 per cent a year until early 2018. Buoyed by a website redesign, growth in the US has been particularly impressive, while management's expectation of 18 per cent top-line growth in the wholesale business is almost double our initial projection. We expect most international growth to come from the US, but we also see increasing focus on developing the European store base.
Liberum says...
Buy. With gross margins broadly in line with last year, Ted Baker is not buying top-line growth. In fact, margins should widen a little this year, so the group should make adjusted earnings per share of 95.2p, based on an upgraded pre-tax profit forecast of £57.7m. The premium valuation is justified by the strong track record of almost exclusively organic growth. It should be noted that the shares have shown ongoing momentum despite trading at a 51 per cent premium to their general retailer peers over the last five years.
