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Opinion

Next week's economics: 6-10 July

Next week's economics: 6-10 July
July 1, 2015
Next week's economics: 6-10 July

Two reasons for this will be evident in official data the same day. These could show that North Sea oil output is now recovering after some long maintenance shutdowns, and that the non-oil trade gap has narrowed a little in the past three months, implying that net exports are contributing a little to growth.

There are, however, still pockets of weakness. Tuesday's official figures will show that manufacturing output is growing only slowly - it is likely to be up by only around 0.2 per cent in April and May compared with the first quarter - while Friday's numbers could show that construction output has also grown only modestly so far in the second quarter; this is because weaker infrastructure investment has offset a pick-up in housebuilding. All this suggests that growth is still quite strongly consumer-led.

This fact might be underlined by a report from the RICS on Thursday. It could say that house price inflation is picking up, due to a combination of reduced political uncertainty after the general election and a lack of supply. How sustainable such price rises are, given the lack of affordability of housing, is however dubious.

In the euro area, meanwhile, figures might be mixed. In Germany we should see small rises in both factory orders and industrial production, which would be consistent with the economy posting good growth in the second quarter. However, while France and Italy could report rising industrial output in May, these increases would merely reverse earlier falls, which would imply that output might well be lower in the second quarter than it was in the first quarter. Perhaps fiscal austerity is offsetting the impact of monetary stimulus.

We'll also get two policy announcements next week. On Wednesday, the chancellor will present his "emergency" Budget. He might use this to announce further spending cuts and a slightly tighter fiscal stance. And on Thursday, the MPC will announce its interest rate decision. Rates will be left unchanged, but it is likely that at least one member (Martin Weale) will argue that an increase is needed very soon.