Buy signals are becoming an increasingly rare sight in our Coppock system, and June proved no turning point, with a further barrage of sell signals honing in on both bond and equity markets.
Among them were UK gilt indices, hardly surprising after sell signals on major government bonds in May – and the unofficial buy signal we saw in May on the corporate bond index we track proved short lived, meaning all of the bond indices we track are now flashing red, pointing to further downward pressure. Problems in Greece prompted more sells on European equity markets, including the blue chip EuroStoxx index which tracks its 50 largest companies. A sell signal on the Australian market could prove well timed given its exposure to China, whose current stock market carnage have yet to trouble the Coppock indicator – it’s one of only two equity markets still showing official buy signals, a situation which seems unlikely to persist. Only a buy signal on the GCSI agricultural commodities index provided any respite.
So, while we’re usually blasé about Coppock sell signals, given their patchy track record, the sheer weight of sell signals suggests investors need to be circumspect about the prospects for global markets.
June's new Coppock signals
Buys | Sells |
S&P GCSI Agriculture TR Index | Australia ASX 200 Index |
Belgium Bel 20 Index | |
EuroStoxx 50 Index | |
UK FTSE 100 Index | |
UK FTSE All Share Index | |
Sweden OMX Stockholm Index | |
Switzerland Swiss Market Index | |
UK 10 Year Gilt | |
FT All Government Bond Index | |
IBOXX Liquid £ Corp Long-dated | |
FTSE British Govt index linked all mats | |
Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
None | None |
June's Coppock Readings
North America | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
SPX | 29.3 | 27.2 | 25.34 | 23.11 | SELL | Mar-14 |
DJINDUS | 21.43 | 20.32 | 19.39 | 17.86 | SELL | Jan-15 |
NASDAQ 100 | 47.58 | 45.12 | 43.92 | 41.75 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NASDAQ COMP | 37.91 | 36.03 | 35.4 | 34.91 | SELL | Apr-14 |
S&P/TSX | 21.04 | 18.13 | 14.42 | 9.67 | SELL | Oct-14 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 29.02 | 28.75 | 25.53 | 21.83 | SELL | Apr-15 |
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | 0.7 | -0.79 | -3.51 | -6.65 | SELL | May-14 |
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | 29.94 | 53.12 | 77.15 | 87.8 | BUY | Aug-14 |
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 14.88 | 20.44 | 24.78 | 25.63 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 0.94 | 2.99 | 4.54 | 4.91 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-15 |
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 36.042 | 32.96 | 30.091 | 23.98 | SELL | Apr-15 |
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 13.75 | 14.95 | 14.44 | 12.04 | SELL | May-15 |
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 21.24 | 21.02 | 19.36 | 16.76 | SELL | Sep-14 |
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 36.26 | 42.15 | 48.64 | 53.46 | CANCEL SELL | Dec-14 |
ASX 200 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 10 | SELL* | Jun-15 |
NZ 50 | 21.18 | 20.66 | 20.23 | 18.35 | SELL | Mar-15 |
JSE TOP 40 | 23.7 | 21.98 | 18.72 | 15.56 | SELL | Sep-14 |
SENSEX | 70.97 | 65.24 | 58.89 | 52.73 | SELL | Mar-15 |
South America | ||||||
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 13.15 | 14.72 | 14.6 | 14.2 | SELL | May-15 |
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 6.07 | 9.57 | 8.05 | 5.66 | SELL | May-15 |
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -21.962 | -24.238 | -30.194 | -35.273 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 29.87 | 32.57 | 34.97 | 35.75 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | -40.58 | -50.57 | -58.21 | -63.18 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -16.31 | -13.34 | -9.8 | -7.35 | BUY | Feb-14 |
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 37.42 | 37.27 | 37.53 | 36.61 | SELL | May-15 |
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 29.64 | 30.53 | 31.98 | 32.36 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 23.032 | 23.478 | 23.606 | 22.6 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 17.22 | 18.95 | 20.88 | 21.19 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 3.48 | 3.42 | 4.4 | 2.37 | SELL* | Jun-15 |
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 10.17 | 10.64 | 13.65 | 15.86 | CANCEL SELL | Feb-15 |
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 4.49 | 4.5 | 5.82 | 4.52 | SELL* | Jun-15 |
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 20.91 | 19.35 | 18.36 | 16.64 | SELL | Jul-14 |
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 25.11 | 22.35 | 19.1 | 15.32 | SELL | Sep-14 |
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 37.91 | 39.99 | 44.95 | 48.84 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 35.74 | 36.29 | 37.59 | 35.87 | SELL* | Jun-15 |
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 21.52 | 19.05 | 16.54 | 13.32 | SELL | Sep-14 |
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | -31.99 | -34.01 | -35.97 | -36.34 | SELL | Jun-14 |
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 18.03 | 22.05 | 24.2 | 29.57 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 16.78 | 15.74 | 15.82 | 14.16 | SELL* | Jun-15 |
*New signals