On Thursday, statisticians are expected to say that real GDP grew at an annualised rate of just over 3 per cent in the second quarter, more than reversing the first-quarter's slight fall. Other figures could suggest that this growth will continue. The Conference Board could report that consumer confidence has risen to an eight-year high, while durable goods orders could rise after two successive monthly falls.
Although the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Wednesday, it's likely to hint that it is considering a rise; a move in September is thought likely.
The UK could also see faster growth. If the first official estimate at second-quarter GDP is in line with NIESR's estimate, it will show an expansion of 0.7 per cent, after 0.4 per cent in the first quarter. However, this growth is likely to be strongly consumer-led. The CBI is expected to report strong growth in retail sales on Wednesday, while the Bank of England could report a pick-up in consumer credit. All this would suggest that households are using higher wages to spend more rather than pay down debt.
We should get a slightly clearer picture about capital spending next week. The CBI's quarterly survey of manufacturers will tell us whether investment intentions have increased: they should have, given the reduction in political uncertainty and ongoing recovery in demand. And the Bank of England will tell us whether last month's increase in company borrowing has continued.
In the eurozone, by contrast, things might not look so good. Germany's Ifo survey could post a second successive decline, with expectations for future output being lower than a year ago: this reflects not just uncertainty about the Greek situation but - more worryingly - weak world trade caused by China's slowdown. Consistent with this, official figures on Friday will show the unemployment rate stuck around 11.1 per cent in the eurozone, with one-in-four under-25s out of work. Other figures the same day will show consumer price inflation at around 0.2 per cent, or 0.9 per cent excluding energy. With the ECB's inflation target at close to 2 per cent, this tells us that policy has failed.
