The NIESR is expected to estimate on Thursday that GDP growth has accelerated, to 0.8 per cent in the three months to July. This, however, owes nothing to manufacturing. Although official figures could show that output rose in June, this would follow two months of decline. And purchasing managers are likely to say on Monday that output grew only modestly in July.
Instead, growth is being driven by a pick-up in North Sea oil production - which Wednesday's figures could show has helped narrow the trade gap - and a strong services sector. Purchasing managers are likely to say that the latter showed strong growth in July.