Some economists expect this to continue. Anna Stupnytska at Fidelity says that sterling's strength "will continue weighing on exports and manufacturing through the year". The problem, though, isn't just the pound. Figures from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis show that world trade volumes have dropped by 1.3 per cent in the past three months, the steepest drop since 2009.
Reflecting these pressures, a survey by the CBI this week showed that manufacturers' expectations for export orders have fallen to their lowest level since October 2011.
This matters, because weak exports are causing some firms to cut capital spending. The CBI also found that investment intentions have fallen in the past 12 months. Bank of England figures this week corroborate this. They showed that firms repaid bank debt last month, suggesting there's little appetite to spend.
Danny Gabay at Fathom Consulting says: "We expect the UK economy to slow a little."
Because of all this, says Ms Stupnytska, higher interest rates are a "2016 story".
Some, however, still expect a rate rise this year. Vatsala Datta at RBC says rising wage inflation could cause the MPC to move in November. We might get a hint of this next week, when three members of the MPC are expected to vote for an interest rate rise.
One danger here, says Ms Datta, is that markets are pricing in only a very modest rise in interest rates: futures markets expect Bank rate to stay below 2 per cent until late 2018. With expectations so low, there's a risk of upward revisions. If so, we could see both further strength not just in sterling but also an increase in mortgage rates because of higher short-term gilt yields. And that could curb the consumer spending that has been the main driver of growth. The economy might not, therefore, be as robust as this week's GDP numbers suggest.
