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Top of the shops for Ted Baker

Shares in Ted Baker have had an extraordinary run, but the momentum may have topped out for now.
October 6, 2015

When a stock trades consistently above 20 times forward earnings, the market holds it to very high standards. Fashion retailer Ted Baker (TED) illustrated this dynamic when the shares dropped 2.5 per cent on publication of what would have been a strong set of half-year results from almost any other operator. The market response might reflect some profit-taking - the shares are up nearly 60 per cent year on year - as pre-tax profit of £17.8m fell slightly short of analysts' expectations.

IC TIP: Hold at 3,200p

There were other niggles, too. Gross margins dipped 0.9 points to 57.6 per cent following a shift to lower-margin licensing sales. That margin squeeze is expected to persist into the second half, although chief operating officer Lindsay Page said in the long run margins should rise again. And August trading was subdued, which Mr Page put down to "widespread reports of macroeconomic instability". The weak euro, concerns over Asian growth and lower tourist traffic all played a part in curbing consumer confidence.

However, none of this does justice to several first-half achievements. On the retail side, Ted expanded its property estate by 6.6 per cent during the period, but still managed to grow retail sales per square foot by 8.3 per cent to £418. E-commerce sales also did particularly well, jumping by nearly two-thirds to £22.9m following an improved website design, the launch of a Canadian website in November 2014 and a new Australian site in June 2015.

The wholesale division performed well in the UK and North America, with revenue 39 per cent above the same period last year. Licence income also rose 17 per cent, with both product and territorial licences performing equally well.

Mr Page said customer activity had picked up nicely in September, and current trading is back to where management expected it to be. Analysts at Peel Hunt expect pre-tax profit of £59.7m for the full financial year, giving EPS of 101p, compared with £49.5m and 83p for the year ended January 2015.

TED BAKER (TED)
ORD PRICE:3,200pMARKET VALUE:£1.41bn
TOUCH:3,190-3,200p12-MONTH HIGH:3,431pLOW: 1,820p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.3%PE RATIO:37
NET ASSET VALUE:321pNET DEBT:39%

Half-year to 15 AugTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201418215.626.111.3
201522717.829.813.2
% change+24+15+14+17

Ex-div: 15 Oct

Payment: 20 Nov