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Opinion

Next week's economics: 12-16 Oct

Next week's economics: 12-16 Oct
October 8, 2015
Next week's economics: 12-16 Oct

The ONS might report on Tuesday that a drop in petrol prices has pushed CPI inflation below zero. Other figures the same day will show that inflation in manufacturing has been negative for some time. Output prices (excluding duty) could be 1.5 per cent lower than a year ago, thanks mainly to a slump in raw materials prices; input prices could be 14 per cent down on last September.

However, the same weak demand that has forced down commodity prices is also depressing output around the world. Official figures in the eurozone could show that industrial production was flat in August - which would be consistent with only slight quarter-on-quarter growth - and Germany's ZEW survey could show that financial professionals' optimism has fallen to an 11-month low.

In the US, although industrial production might have risen in September, this might still leave it lower than it was in July. Surveys of manufacturers by the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserves might also show weak activity. Retail sales, however, should be a little healthier.

Official figures from China will not, however, enlighten us. These could show growth of around 6 per cent in industrial production and 7 per cent in GDP. However, many economists suspect these overstate actual growth.

Back in the UK we could see another rise in unemployment on Wednesday. However, this might not be a sign of a weak economy so much as of a pick-up in productivity growth. Such a pick-up would help explain and justify a rise in wage inflation; average earnings in the three months to August could be 3.4 per cent up on a year ago - the biggest increase for over five years.

With inflation around zero, this implies big rises in real wages. This in turn will help explain Monday's report from the BRC, which should show that retail sales, adjusted for inflation, are growing strongly.

This poses a dilemma for the Bank of England: rising wage growth and strong consumer spending point to a rate rise, but the shaky world economy argues against one. This dilemma is unlikely to go away soon.

Watch out too for US capital flows numbers. These will show that non-Americans have been net sellers of US equities in the last 12 months. In the past, this has been a sign of abnormally low confidence and hence a predictor of rising share prices. However, this time it might instead tell us that commodity exporters are investing less in the US simply because they have lower revenues.