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Generation rent suits Paragon

A strong buy-to-let market is helping the challenger lender reshape its business
November 24, 2015

Paragon (PAG) is making use of a continued rise in the buy-to-let market to diversify its sources of funding and revenue, with its full-year results demonstrating progress on both counts. Underlying pre-tax profit was up a tenth at £135m, powered by an average buy-to-let loan book that grew by 7 per cent over the period. New business here doubled to £1.3bn, with the pipeline also strongly up. The improved credit environment was also a key factor: the loan impairment charge halved to £5.6m.

IC TIP: Buy at 393p

Net interest margins were up 5 basis points to 2.04 per cent, as the lower-margin business written before the financial crisis is replaced by the higher-margin business written since. But this newer business comes with a higher turnover: annualised redemption rates increased from 4.1 per cent to 5.8 per cent. An increasing amount of buy-to-let loans were issued by its 18-month-old banking operation, which is also growing its motor finance book. What's more, the acquisition of Five Arrows has added asset finance to the mix: both of these are areas of growth, but also growing competition, for alternative lenders.

The funding shift is not before time. Paragon's traditional funding method - securitising its mortgages and selling them to investors - has become more expensive as the UK government offloads its bailed-out mortgage books onto the market. This oversupply means that Paragon has had to pay an increasingly high margin to investors. The £709m in deposits raised by the banking operation (£60m in 2014) will reduce its reliance on the securitisation markets, while a third retail bond issued during the period raised £113m.

Idem Capital, the group's debt management business, increased its underlying profit by 2.5 per cent to £49m, as a strong market saw banks and other financial institutions continuing to offload paying and non-paying loans. Analysts at Peel Hunt expected to increase forecasts for the 2016 financial year by 7 per cent to give adjusted pre-tax profit of £161m and EPS of 42p. That compares with £135m and 35.5p in the reported period.

 

PARAGON (PAG)
ORD PRICE:393.3pMARKET VALUE:£1.17bn
TOUCH:393.3-393.9p12-MONTH HIGH:462pLOW: 374p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.8%PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:327pLEVERAGE RATIO:12

Year to 30 SepTotal operating income (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
201115180.820.24
201217095.524.26
201317810528.27.2
201419812331.99
201521213435.511
% change+7+9+11+22

Ex-div: 7 Jan

Payment: 15 Feb